Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, May 1, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Phantom Blue 0.80 1 2-1
6 6 Soaring High 3.50 1.8 3-1
7 7 Episist 4.00 2 4-1
5 5 Mass 8.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Sister Jean 12.00 4.5 9-1
2 2 Butterfly Jasmine 15.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Haywinii 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Five a Side 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Sudden Switch 3.50 1.2 2-1
3 3 Chopsticks 4.50 1.4 3-1
5 5 Quantum Burst 6.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Amalfi Drive 6.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Anna’s Promise 8.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Decadent 8.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 White Rocks 10.00 3.1 6-1
8 8 Carmel Rose 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Star Actress 4.00 1 2-1
7 7 Betty’s Pearl 4.50 1.3 2-1
9 9 Leinani 5.00 1.6 3-1
5 5 Joyful Justice 6.00 2.3 4-1
6 6 Maximum Offer 6.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Measure 6.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Miss Call 10.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Making Daisys 15.00 7.9 15-1
3 3 Krissys Star 15.00 7.9 15-1
11 11 Feisty Red Head 20.00 11 21-1
8 8 Ur Desire 20.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Hedge Book 3.50 1 2-1
11 11 Tammy’s Kiss 4.50 1.7 3-1
4 4 Couplet 6.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Passerine 8.00 4.3 8-1
13 13 Tramuntana 8.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Battis Grove 10.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 Serena’s Surprise 12.00 7.2 14-1
9 9 Lexi V. 15.00 9.4 18-1
5 5 Gerber Daisy 15.00 9.4 18-1
12 12 Zengraya 15.00 9.4 18-1
7 7 Bella Ella 15.00 9.4 18-1
2 2 Power to Glory 20.00 13 25-1
10 10 Rose of San Antone 20.00 13 25-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Prepped 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Executive 4.00 1.3 2-1
11 11 Royal Guard 5.00 1.6 3-1
8 8 War and Majesty 8.00 2.6 5-1
13 13 Timayyyy 8.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Powell River 8.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Bridgesong 8.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Flick 10.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Clark’s Corner 12.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Cash Bonus 15.00 4.8 9-1
16 16 Wembley Avenue 15.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Culture War 20.00 6.4 12-1
14 14 Drop Shot 20.00 6.4 12-1
15 15 Apollo’s Glory 30.00 9.6 18-1
3 3 Grande Sorpreso 30.00 9.6 18-1
12 12 Hill Country 50.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Carmel Coast 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Paige Turner 4.00 1.3 2-1
12 12 French Blue 4.50 1.5 3-1
1 1 Where Luck Lives 6.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Nimah 8.00 2.5 5-1
9 9 Steer Clear 10.00 3.1 6-1
11 11 Our Two Girls 20.00 6.1 11-1
13 13 Blue Flame Six 20.00 6.1 11-1
8 8 Essential Coffee 20.00 6.1 11-1
2 2 Camila Catalina 20.00 6.1 11-1
14 14 Heaven’s Bolt 30.00 9 17-1
4 4 Color Comin’ In 30.00 9 17-1
10 10 Getting Closer 30.00 9 17-1
15 15 Don’t Do It Lucy 30.00 9 17-1
7 7 Kayla’s Komet 50.00 15 28-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Unbridled Sidney S. Presented By Twinspires) – Unbridled Sidney S. Presented By Twinspires

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Shisospicy 1.80 1 2-1
5 5 Queen Maxima 3.50 1.8 3-1
8 8 Moon Spun 4.00 2 4-1
7 7 Haulin Ice 6.00 2.9 5-1
9 9 Shoot It True 6.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 Buttercream Babe 15.00 6.8 13-1
3 3 Time to Dazzle 15.00 6.8 13-1
4 4 Creed’s Gold 20.00 9 17-1
1 1 Mae Town 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Eight Belles S. Presented By Sysco) – Eight Belles S. Presented By Sysco

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 On Time Girl 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 Goodall 3.00 1.1 2-1
3 3 River Wind 4.00 1.3 2-1
2 2 French Friction 6.00 1.6 3-1
7 7 Luv Your Neighbor 6.00 1.6 3-1
6 6 Sippin Pretty 8.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Paradise 15.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Solemn Vow 20.00 4 7-1
1 1 Front Runnin 50.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Alysheba S. Presented By U.s. Army) – Alysheba S. Presented By U.s. Army

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Baeza 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 Skippylongstocking 3.50 1.5 3-1
4 4 Tappan Street 4.00 1.7 3-1
9 9 Disruptor 6.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Grande 8.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Nu What’s New 8.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Corporate Power 10.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 East Avenue 12.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Navajo Warrior 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Modesty S. Presented By Veritas Prime) – Modesty S. Presented By Veritas Prime

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Gezora (FR) 0.80 1 2-1
3 3 Whiskey Decision 4.00 1.6 3-1
2 2 Proctor Street 6.00 2 4-1
5 5 Kathynmarissa 8.00 2.3 4-1
8 8 Pin Up Betty 10.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Stylish Sue 20.00 4.5 9-1
7 7 Dona Clota (CHI) 20.00 4.5 9-1
9 9 Adrasteia 30.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Ramsey Pond 30.00 6.3 12-1
10 10 Queens Command (IRE) 50.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Fasig-tipton La Troienne S.) – Fasig-tipton La Troienne S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Shred the Gnar 3.00 1 2-1
9 9 Fully Subscribed 3.50 1.2 2-1
1 1 Bless the Broken 4.50 1.6 3-1
7 7 Chasten 6.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Scalable 8.00 2.9 5-1
10 10 Snowyte 10.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 Dry Powder 12.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Miss Justify 15.00 5.4 10-1
11 11 Drexel Hill 15.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Nerazurri 20.00 7.3 14-1
6 6 Take Charge Omaha 30.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 12 (Edgewood S. Presented By Accenture) – Edgewood S. Presented By Accenture

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Imaginationthelady 4.00 1 2-1
11 11 Time to Dream 5.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Storm’s Wake 6.00 2 4-1
9 9 Dandona 6.00 2 4-1
5 5 Just Aloof 8.00 3 6-1
8 8 Lion Lake (IRE) 8.00 3 6-1
6 6 Tam Tam 15.00 6.5 12-1
7 7 Lovely Grey 15.00 6.5 12-1
4 4 Lorelei Lee 15.00 6.5 12-1
13 13 Indigo Woods (IRE) 15.00 6.5 12-1
14 14 To a Flame 20.00 9 17-1
10 10 Bohemian 20.00 9 17-1
12 12 Taken by the Wind 30.00 14 26-1
2 2 Connect the Stars 30.00 14 26-1

RACE NUMBER 13 (Longines Kentucky Oaks) – Longines Kentucky Oaks

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Zany 4.00 1 2-1
5 5 Meaning 5.00 1.4 3-1
1 1 Explora 6.00 1.7 3-1
11 11 Percy’s Bar 6.00 1.7 3-1
4 4 Counting Stars 8.00 2.4 5-1
10 10 Prom Queen 8.00 2.4 5-1
9 9 Always a Runner 10.00 3.1 6-1
12 12 Bella Ballerina 12.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 Bottle of Rouge 15.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 My Miss Mo 20.00 6.6 12-1
17 17 Resist 30.00 10 19-1
3 3 Search Party 30.00 10 19-1
7 7 Dazzling Dame 30.00 10 19-1
14 14 Brooklyn Blonde 30.00 10 19-1
15 15 Lovely Grey 30.00 10 19-1
13 13 Pashmina 30.00 10 19-1
16 16 Nycon 50.00 17 32-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.