Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, May 1, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Phantom Blue 0.80 1 2-1
7 7 Episist 4.00 3 6-1
5 5 Mass 8.00 4.5 9-1
6 6 Soaring High 3.50 4.9 9-1
4 4 Haywinii 20.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Sister Jean 12.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Butterfly Jasmine 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Amalfi Drive 6.00 1 2-1
5 5 Quantum Burst 6.00 2 4-1
3 3 Chopsticks 4.50 2.2 4-1
6 6 Anna’s Promise 8.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 White Rocks 10.00 2.9 6-1
7 7 Sudden Switch 3.50 4.4 8-1
9 9 Five a Side 3.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Decadent 8.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 Carmel Rose 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Star Actress 4.00 1 2-1
5 5 Joyful Justice 6.00 2.3 4-1
7 7 Betty’s Pearl 4.50 2.5 5-1
4 4 Miss Call 10.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Maximum Offer 6.00 3.7 7-1
11 11 Feisty Red Head 20.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Leinani 5.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Krissys Star 15.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Measure 6.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 Ur Desire 20.00 6.8 13-1
1 1 Making Daisys 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Hedge Book 3.50 1 2-1
13 13 Tramuntana 8.00 3 6-1
12 12 Zengraya 15.00 3.3 6-1
9 9 Lexi V. 15.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Bella Ella 15.00 4.5 8-1
10 10 Rose of San Antone 20.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Gerber Daisy 15.00 5 9-1
6 6 Passerine 8.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Couplet 6.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Battis Grove 10.00 7.2 14-1
11 11 Tammy’s Kiss 4.50 8.2 15-1
2 2 Power to Glory 20.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Serena’s Surprise 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Executive 4.00 1 2-1
10 10 Prepped 3.00 2.3 4-1
9 9 Cash Bonus 15.00 2.8 5-1
11 11 Royal Guard 5.00 4.5 8-1
4 4 Powell River 8.00 5.6 11-1
8 8 War and Majesty 8.00 6.1 12-1
13 13 Timayyyy 8.00 6.4 12-1
5 5 Flick 10.00 6.4 12-1
3 3 Grande Sorpreso 30.00 6.4 12-1
2 2 Clark’s Corner 12.00 6.9 13-1
7 7 Culture War 20.00 7.1 13-1
1 1 Bridgesong 8.00 9 17-1
14 14 Drop Shot 20.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Hill Country 50.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Wembley Avenue 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Apollo’s Glory 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Paige Turner 4.00 1 2-1
12 12 French Blue 4.50 3.1 6-1
6 6 Carmel Coast 3.00 6.2 12-1
13 13 Blue Flame Six 20.00 6.3 12-1
2 2 Camila Catalina 20.00 7.2 14-1
8 8 Essential Coffee 20.00 8.1 15-1
11 11 Our Two Girls 20.00 8.3 16-1
4 4 Color Comin’ In 30.00 9.1 17-1
14 14 Heaven’s Bolt 30.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Where Luck Lives 6.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Getting Closer 30.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Kayla’s Komet 50.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Nimah 8.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Don’t Do It Lucy 30.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Steer Clear 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Unbridled Sidney S. Presented By Twinspires) – Unbridled Sidney S. Presented By Twinspires

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Shisospicy 1.80 1 2-1
5 5 Queen Maxima 3.50 1.1 2-1
8 8 Moon Spun 4.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Haulin Ice 6.00 3.6 7-1
3 3 Time to Dazzle 15.00 3.6 7-1
9 9 Shoot It True 6.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Creed’s Gold 20.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Buttercream Babe 15.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Mae Town 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Eight Belles S. Presented By Sysco) – Eight Belles S. Presented By Sysco

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 French Friction 6.00 1 2-1
9 9 On Time Girl 2.50 1.6 3-1
8 8 Goodall 3.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Sippin Pretty 8.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 River Wind 4.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Paradise 15.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Luv Your Neighbor 6.00 4.9 9-1
5 5 Solemn Vow 20.00 6.9 13-1
1 1 Front Runnin 50.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Alysheba S. Presented By U.s. Army) – Alysheba S. Presented By U.s. Army

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Baeza 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 Skippylongstocking 3.50 2.6 5-1
3 3 Grande 8.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Corporate Power 10.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Tappan Street 4.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Nu What’s New 8.00 5.3 10-1
5 5 East Avenue 12.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Navajo Warrior 20.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Disruptor 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Modesty S. Presented By Veritas Prime) – Modesty S. Presented By Veritas Prime

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Gezora (FR) 0.80 1 2-1
2 2 Proctor Street 6.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Stylish Sue 20.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Kathynmarissa 8.00 4.7 9-1
10 10 Queens Command (IRE) 50.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Dona Clota (CHI) 20.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Whiskey Decision 4.00 5.4 10-1
1 1 Ramsey Pond 30.00 6 11-1
8 8 Pin Up Betty 10.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Adrasteia 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Fasig-tipton La Troienne S.) – Fasig-tipton La Troienne S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Fully Subscribed 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 Bless the Broken 4.50 2.8 5-1
5 5 Shred the Gnar 3.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Nerazurri 20.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Miss Justify 15.00 4.3 8-1
7 7 Chasten 6.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 Dry Powder 12.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Scalable 8.00 5 9-1
11 11 Drexel Hill 15.00 7.3 14-1
6 6 Take Charge Omaha 30.00 7.4 14-1
10 10 Snowyte 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 12 (Edgewood S. Presented By Accenture) – Edgewood S. Presented By Accenture

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Imaginationthelady 4.00 1 2-1
5 5 Just Aloof 8.00 1.5 3-1
13 13 Indigo Woods (IRE) 15.00 5 10-1
8 8 Lion Lake (IRE) 8.00 5.5 10-1
14 14 To a Flame 20.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Lorelei Lee 15.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Storm’s Wake 6.00 5.9 11-1
6 6 Tam Tam 15.00 6 11-1
11 11 Time to Dream 5.00 6.8 13-1
9 9 Dandona 6.00 7.5 14-1
12 12 Taken by the Wind 30.00 8.5 16-1
2 2 Connect the Stars 30.00 8.6 16-1
10 10 Bohemian 20.00 9.2 17-1
7 7 Lovely Grey 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 13 (Longines Kentucky Oaks) – Longines Kentucky Oaks

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Explora 6.00 1 2-1
2 2 Zany 4.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Meaning 5.00 4 8-1
11 11 Percy’s Bar 6.00 5.8 11-1
14 14 Brooklyn Blonde 30.00 6.7 13-1
10 10 Prom Queen 8.00 7.6 14-1
9 9 Always a Runner 10.00 7.7 15-1
3 3 Search Party 30.00 8.2 15-1
17 17 Resist 30.00 8.3 16-1
7 7 Dazzling Dame 30.00 8.6 16-1
4 4 Counting Stars 8.00 9.5 18-1
13 13 Pashmina 30.00 10 19-1
15 15 Lovely Grey 30.00 13.5 25-1
12 12 Bella Ballerina 12.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Nycon 50.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Bottle of Rouge 15.00 SCRATCH
6 6 My Miss Mo 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.