Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Powershift | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Silent Way | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Get Them Roses | 15.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cromwell | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Stakeholder | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bourbon Dream | 5.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Time to Strike | 20.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ingleborough | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Winston Ave | 4.50 | SCRATCH | ||
| 10 | 10 | Midnight Playboy | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Bhatia | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Taptastic | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Our Moneyman | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Steel | 20.00 | 3.3 | 6-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Lincoln’s Law | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Memory | 4.50 | 4 | 7-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Out of the Woods | 6.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Sovereign Law | 8.00 | 4.5 | 9-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Spirit of Royal | 30.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Make My Day | 8.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Very Connected | 12.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Seal Bay | 30.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | J J Grey | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Praetor | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | John Hancock | 6.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Keewaydin | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Comport | 15.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Who Dey | 4.50 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Vibe | 6.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Attache | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Bullard | 12.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Racing Driver | 20.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Vamos Carlitos | 15.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Aleman | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Arro Smash | 15.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Special Caliber | 30.00 | 9.9 | 19-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mitochondria | 30.00 | 14 | 26-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Derby City Distaff S. Presented By Ford) – Derby City Distaff S. Presented By Ford
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Usha | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | R Disaster | 6.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Splendora | 2.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ways and Means | 1.60 | 2.2 | 4-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Autumn Evening | 20.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Haulin Ice | 4.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 5 (Twin Spires Turf Sprint S. Presented By Accenture) – Twin Spires Turf Sprint S. Presented By Accenture
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Yellow Card | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | My Boy Prince | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Joe Shiesty | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Wendelssohn | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bear River | 30.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Litigation | 3.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mondogetsbuckets | 8.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Possiblemente | 10.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Its Bourbon Thirty | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Full Disclosure | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Knicks Go Overnight S. Presented By L&n Federal Credit Union) – Knicks Go Overnight S. Presented By L&n Federal Credit Union
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Dragoon Guard | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Capital Idea | 5.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Be You | 3.50 | 4.6 | 9-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Moonlight | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Will Take It | 8.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Tour Player | 4.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Banjo Chris | 20.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Prince of Power | 30.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Scotland | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Bernin Hot | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 1 | 1 | Brotha Keny | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 7 (Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S.) – Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Sweet Rebecca | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Pin Up Betty | 3.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Movin’ On Up | 12.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Classic Q | 6.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Portfolio Duration (GB) | 4.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Temptable (GB) | 8.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Maggie Go (ARG) | 8.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Italian Soiree | 10.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Vina Arana (IRE) | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Pat Day Mile S. Presented By Sap) – Pat Day Mile S. Presented By Sap
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Englishman | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Stop the Car | 20.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Creole Chrome | 8.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Crude Velocity | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Crown the Buckeye | 6.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | One More Freud | 15.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Lockstocknpharoah | 20.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Trouble Calling | 5.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Secured Freedom | 20.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Work | 50.00 | 6.9 | 13-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Baytown Dreamer | 50.00 | 8.7 | 16-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Great White | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 9 (American Turf S.) – American Turf S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Greenwich Village | 6.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Remember Mamba | 4.50 | 2.3 | 4-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Stark Contrast | 4.00 | 3.1 | 6-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Street Beast | 15.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Thousandsticks | 15.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Vasy (IRE) | 10.00 | 4.9 | 9-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Final Score | 8.00 | 6.1 | 11-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Honey Dutch | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Alpyland | 8.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Let’s Be Frank | 30.00 | 7.7 | 14-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Steel Imperium | 30.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Black Hornet | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Blinging It Back | 30.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Blackout Time | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 10 (Churchill Downs S. Presented By Ford) – Churchill Downs S. Presented By Ford
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Knightsbridge | 1.80 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cornucopian | 3.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Imagination | 6.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Hall of Fame | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Banishing | 12.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Point Dume | 15.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Disruptor | 8.00 | 8.5 | 16-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Disco Time | 6.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 |
| 8 | 8 | T O Elvis | 30.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Crazy Mason | 15.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Macho Music | 30.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic S.) – Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Program Trading (GB) | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Gold Phoenix (IRE) | 10.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Rhetorical | 2.50 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Test Score | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Mercante | 12.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Dashman | 20.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Corruption | 15.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Make Me King (FR) | 6.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Asbury Park (GB) | 8.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Astronomer | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 12 (Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve) – Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | 14 | Potente | 20.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Chief Wallabee | 8.00 | 1.3 | 3-1 | |
| 15 | 15 | Emerging Market | 15.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Wonder Dean (JPN) | 30.00 | 2 | 4-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | So Happy | 15.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Renegade | 4.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Danon Bourbon | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Commandment | 6.00 | 6.6 | 13-1 | |
| 18 | 18 | Further Ado | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 | |
| 19 | 19 | Golden Tempo | 30.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Intrepido | 50.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 | |
| 17 | 17 | Six Speed | 50.00 | 8.4 | 16-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Litmus Test | 50.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 23 | 23 | Robusta | 50.00 | 9.3 | 18-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Incredibolt | 20.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 | |
| 16 | 16 | Pavlovian | 30.00 | 12.4 | 23-1 | |
| 21 | 21 | Great White | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 2 | 2 | Albus | 30.00 | 13.7 | 26-1 | |
| 22 | 22 | Ocelli | 50.00 | 14.2 | 27-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Silent Tactic | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Right to Party | 30.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 24 | 24 | Corona de Oro | 50.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 9 | 9 | The Puma | 10.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 20 | 20 | Fulleffort | 20.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 13 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Noble Affair | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Gilded Bandit | 3.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Buetane | 2.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Small Town | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Heartily | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 5 | 5 | Hulkamania | 8.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Thunder Buck | 15.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Ring Curl | 15.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Sav’n Money | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Red Lad | 30.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 | |
| 6 | 6 | Cruisin Chuck | 15.00 | SCRATCH | ||
RACE NUMBER 14 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Prize Pick | 12.00 | 1 | 2-1 | |
| 8 | 8 | Find No Fault | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 | |
| 10 | 10 | Chianti Town | 20.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 | |
| 7 | 7 | Act of Parliament | 6.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 | |
| 13 | 13 | Noble Anthem | 20.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 9 | 9 | Big Jake | 8.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 | |
| 2 | 2 | Bestball | 30.00 | 6 | 11-1 | |
| 3 | 3 | Interrogator | 6.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 | |
| 12 | 12 | Big Braciole | 30.00 | 7.2 | 14-1 | |
| 1 | 1 | Boylston | 10.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 | |
| 14 | 14 | Brave Pilot | 8.00 | 8.2 | 15-1 | |
| 4 | 4 | Sleeping Warrior | 15.00 | 9.1 | 17-1 | |
| 11 | 11 | Great Moment | 12.00 | SCRATCH | ||
| 5 | 5 | Don’s Winner | 8.00 | SCRATCH | ||
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.