Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | 11 | Powershift | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Silent Way | 4.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Winston Ave | 4.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Bourbon Dream | 5.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cromwell | 6.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Get Them Roses | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Midnight Playboy | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Bhatia | 15.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ingleborough | 20.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Time to Strike | 20.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Stakeholder | 20.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Taptastic | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Memory | 4.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Our Moneyman | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Out of the Woods | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Make My Day | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sovereign Law | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Lincoln’s Law | 10.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Very Connected | 12.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 10 | 10 | J J Grey | 15.00 | 5.9 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Steel | 20.00 | 7.9 | 15-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Spirit of Royal | 30.00 | 12 | 23-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Seal Bay | 30.00 | 12 | 23-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | 12 | Praetor | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Who Dey | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Vibe | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | John Hancock | 6.00 | 2.4 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Keewaydin | 8.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Bullard | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Arro Smash | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Vamos Carlitos | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Comport | 15.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Attache | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Racing Driver | 20.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Aleman | 30.00 | 14 | 26-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Special Caliber | 30.00 | 14 | 26-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mitochondria | 30.00 | 14 | 26-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Derby City Distaff S. Presented By Ford) – Derby City Distaff S. Presented By Ford
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Ways and Means | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Splendora | 2.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Haulin Ice | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Usha | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 6 | 6 | R Disaster | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Autumn Evening | 20.00 | 6 | 11-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Twin Spires Turf Sprint S. Presented By Accenture) – Twin Spires Turf Sprint S. Presented By Accenture
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | My Boy Prince | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Litigation | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Yellow Card | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Joe Shiesty | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Mondogetsbuckets | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Possiblemente | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Its Bourbon Thirty | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Wendelssohn | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Full Disclosure | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bear River | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Knicks Go Overnight S. Presented By L&n Federal Credit Union) – Knicks Go Overnight S. Presented By L&n Federal Credit Union
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Dragoon Guard | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Be You | 3.50 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Tour Player | 4.00 | 1.4 | 3-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Capital Idea | 5.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Will Take It | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Moonlight | 8.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Brotha Keny | 15.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Scotland | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Banjo Chris | 20.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Prince of Power | 30.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Bernin Hot | 30.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S.) – Longines Churchill Distaff Turf Mile S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Sweet Rebecca | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Pin Up Betty | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Portfolio Duration (GB) | 4.00 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Classic Q | 6.00 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Maggie Go (ARG) | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Temptable (GB) | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Italian Soiree | 10.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Movin’ On Up | 12.00 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Vina Arana (IRE) | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Pat Day Mile S. Presented By Sap) – Pat Day Mile S. Presented By Sap
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Crude Velocity | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Englishman | 3.00 | 1.1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Trouble Calling | 5.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Crown the Buckeye | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Creole Chrome | 8.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Great White | 12.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 11 | 11 | One More Freud | 15.00 | 3.9 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Stop the Car | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Secured Freedom | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Lockstocknpharoah | 20.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Work | 50.00 | 12 | 23-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Baytown Dreamer | 50.00 | 12 | 23-1 |
RACE NUMBER 9 (American Turf S.) – American Turf S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Stark Contrast | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Remember Mamba | 4.50 | 1.3 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Greenwich Village | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Final Score | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Alpyland | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Blackout Time | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Vasy (IRE) | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Honey Dutch | 12.00 | 5 | 9-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Thousandsticks | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Street Beast | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Black Hornet | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Let’s Be Frank | 30.00 | 14 | 26-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Blinging It Back | 30.00 | 14 | 26-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Steel Imperium | 30.00 | 14 | 26-1 |
RACE NUMBER 10 (Churchill Downs S. Presented By Ford) – Churchill Downs S. Presented By Ford
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Knightsbridge | 1.80 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Cornucopian | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Imagination | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Disco Time | 6.00 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Disruptor | 8.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Banishing | 12.00 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Point Dume | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Crazy Mason | 15.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Hall of Fame | 20.00 | 7.5 | 14-1 |
| 8 | 8 | T O Elvis | 30.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Macho Music | 30.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 11 (Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic S.) – Old Forester Bourbon Turf Classic S.
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Rhetorical | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Test Score | 3.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Program Trading (GB) | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Make Me King (FR) | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Asbury Park (GB) | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Gold Phoenix (IRE) | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Mercante | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Corruption | 15.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Dashman | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Astronomer | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 12 (Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve) – Kentucky Derby Presented By Woodford Reserve
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Renegade | 4.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Commandment | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 18 | 18 | Further Ado | 6.00 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Chief Wallabee | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | The Puma | 10.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | So Happy | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 15 | 15 | Emerging Market | 15.00 | 6.5 | 12-1 |
| 20 | 20 | Fulleffort | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Incredibolt | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Danon Bourbon | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Potente | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Silent Tactic | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
| 19 | 19 | Golden Tempo | 30.00 | 14 | 26-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Albus | 30.00 | 14 | 26-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Wonder Dean (JPN) | 30.00 | 14 | 26-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Right to Party | 30.00 | 14 | 26-1 |
| 16 | 16 | Pavlovian | 30.00 | 14 | 26-1 |
| 21 | 21 | Great White | 50.00 | 24 | 45-1 |
| 23 | 23 | Robusta | 50.00 | 24 | 45-1 |
| 24 | 24 | Corona de Oro | 50.00 | 24 | 45-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Litmus Test | 50.00 | 24 | 45-1 |
| 22 | 22 | Ocelli | 50.00 | 24 | 45-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Intrepido | 50.00 | 24 | 45-1 |
| 17 | 17 | Six Speed | 50.00 | 24 | 45-1 |
RACE NUMBER 13 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 10 | Buetane | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Gilded Bandit | 3.00 | 1.2 | 2-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Noble Affair | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Hulkamania | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Small Town | 8.00 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Heartily | 12.00 | 4.5 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Thunder Buck | 15.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cruisin Chuck | 15.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Ring Curl | 15.00 | 5.6 | 10-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Sav’n Money | 20.00 | 7.4 | 14-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Red Lad | 30.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
RACE NUMBER 14 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Find No Fault | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Interrogator | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Act of Parliament | 6.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Don’s Winner | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Big Jake | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Brave Pilot | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Boylston | 10.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Great Moment | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Prize Pick | 12.00 | 4.8 | 9-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Sleeping Warrior | 15.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Chianti Town | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Noble Anthem | 20.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Bestball | 30.00 | 14 | 26-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Big Braciole | 30.00 | 14 | 26-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.