Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, May 7, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Mula 2.00 1 2-1
2 2 Go for Rocket 3.00 1.5 3-1
6 6 Pampered Prince 4.00 2.1 4-1
8 8 Show Me the Munny 6.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Bold Stand 8.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Consequential 10.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Hill Country 12.00 6.4 12-1
5 5 King of Salsa 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 De’ Medici 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 My Noble Knight 3.00 1.5 3-1
7 7 Time for Trouble 3.50 1.8 3-1
8 8 Single Dot Yaht 6.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 King of Hollywood 8.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 Urban Planner 10.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 C F V Bullet 15.00 8 15-1
2 2 Slim Slow Slider 15.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Gypsy Art 2.00 1 2-1
3 3 Ink Lies 3.00 1.5 3-1
13 13 Mischievous Richie 4.50 2.2 4-1
6 6 Ice Wolf 5.00 2.4 5-1
10 10 Tranquillo 6.00 2.9 5-1
11 11 Soulman 8.00 3.8 7-1
8 8 Caragogo 8.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Zap d’Etat 12.00 5.6 11-1
1 1 Dismiss 12.00 5.6 11-1
12 12 Halley’s Comet 12.00 5.6 11-1
9 9 Himothy 15.00 7 13-1
2 2 Final Countdown 30.00 14 26-1
7 7 Mr. Vaggio 30.00 14 26-1
14 14 Tattoo 30.00 14 26-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Awesome Ruta 1.40 1 2-1
4 4 Eye Dee Kay 2.50 1.3 2-1
6 6 Trusty Rusty 4.50 1.9 4-1
9 9 Pappy’s Revenge 8.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Couperin 12.00 4 8-1
5 5 Calycanthus 15.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Itsinmyblood 15.00 4.8 9-1
2 2 Evening News 20.00 6.2 12-1
7 7 Non Fungible 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Hot Gamer 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Llamp 3.50 1.4 3-1
2 2 Cookie’s Run 5.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Pedital 8.00 3 6-1
10 10 Rotisserie 8.00 3 6-1
5 5 Noroomformischief 10.00 3.7 7-1
9 9 Lindy Can 12.00 4.5 8-1
4 4 Cusp of Mischief 12.00 4.5 8-1
8 8 Speightsy Rival 15.00 5.6 10-1
7 7 Vino Alla Mora 30.00 11 21-1
6 6 Peggie Castle 30.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Pitkin 2.00 1 2-1
6 6 Higgins Boat 3.00 1.7 3-1
9 9 Clever Mischief 4.50 2.7 5-1
7 7 Izzy d’Oro 8.00 5 9-1
11 11 Heart Headed 10.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 Esmark 10.00 6.3 12-1
2 2 Demolition Duke 12.00 7.7 14-1
1 1 Pineland 12.00 7.7 14-1
4 4 Otago 15.00 9.7 18-1
12 12 In a Jam 15.00 9.7 18-1
13 13 Saint in the City 20.00 13 25-1
8 8 Alder 20.00 13 25-1
10 10 Big to Do 20.00 13 25-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Sutura 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Mighty Nora 3.50 1.2 2-1
4 4 Don’t Even 4.50 1.6 3-1
10 10 Little Bit Angel 8.00 3 6-1
5 5 Muskoka Katt 10.00 3.9 7-1
1 1 Poppy Woppy 12.00 4.7 9-1
11 11 More Than Hope 12.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 Maxi Maxi 12.00 4.7 9-1
6 6 By La Rina 15.00 5.9 11-1
3 3 Gaga’s Girl 15.00 5.9 11-1
9 9 Once Upon a Time 30.00 12 23-1
2 2 Wado Wave 30.00 12 23-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Raiding Party (IRE) 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Good Family 3.00 1.2 2-1
9 9 Call On Me 4.50 1.9 4-1
11 11 Soloist 6.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Rhythm Lady 6.00 2.5 5-1
10 10 Turner’s Charm 8.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Embrace Time 10.00 4.3 8-1
13 13 Callmeyourmajesty 12.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Nelson’s Penny 12.00 5.2 10-1
12 12 Go to Girl 15.00 6.5 12-1
3 3 Cooperation (FR) 15.00 6.5 12-1
4 4 Cool American 20.00 8.6 16-1
8 8 More Carats 30.00 13 25-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.