Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, May 8, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Argan 1.20 1 2-1
6 6 Gypsan 3.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Animal Fries 3.50 2.6 5-1
2 2 Cora’s Legacy 4.50 3.1 6-1
3 3 Night Cry 10.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Temporarilyforever 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Wish Carefully 1.80 1 2-1
3 3 Aubrey’s Max 8.00 2.4 4-1
4 4 Romantic Lead 4.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 Phenomenal Dream 2.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Fast Joker 3.50 5.9 11-1
6 6 Tisum 20.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Mister Banderas 1.20 1 2-1
3 3 You Belong Here 6.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Gallo de Fuego 4.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Livehappy 8.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Aerate 3.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Odorico 15.00 6.5 12-1
4 4 Catamount 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Fancy Lady 1.80 1 2-1
1 1 Toast the Star 3.00 6.9 13-1
5 5 Cheddar 4.00 7.5 14-1
8 8 Victor Valley 8.00 7.6 14-1
6 6 Cearnach 10.00 8.2 16-1
3 3 Fregata 20.00 8.8 17-1
7 7 Beau Cup 15.00 12.2 23-1
10 10 Anna of Austria 20.00 12.4 23-1
12 12 Spare Me 5.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Fashion Quest 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Cardiff Reef 12.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Yes Julia 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Vivianite 10.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Amazon Time 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Sweet Note 6.00 1 2-1
4 4 Big Dig 1.40 3.6 7-1
6 6 Sassy Princess 2.50 4.1 8-1
1 1 Ce La Vi Charli 15.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Cervaro Della Sala (GB) 3.50 4.4 8-1
5 5 Mom’s Cheesecake 8.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Somethinabouther 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Fantastical 20.00 1.4 3-1
5 5 Contrary 15.00 2.2 4-1
8 8 Lady Ilze (GB) 8.00 3.1 6-1
9 9 Liam in the Dust 15.00 3.7 7-1
3 3 Bracelet 1.60 4.4 8-1
2 2 Exclusive Star 6.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Saratoga Special (IRE) 4.50 4.8 9-1
7 7 Sanctify 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Itchy 4.50 1 2-1
4 4 Eleos 3.50 3.6 7-1
8 8 Captain Mercury 6.00 4.5 9-1
3 3 Cerberus 6.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Sparked 10.00 6.4 12-1
9 9 Tilt a Twirl 2.50 6.5 12-1
5 5 Bandstand 15.00 6.7 13-1
6 6 Chairmanoftheboard 12.00 7.6 14-1
1 1 Knicks N Stones 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Tap Me a Song 4.50 1 2-1
5 5 Madaket Road 0.40 1.2 2-1
7 7 Imagine John 12.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Editor 15.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Ghost Tales 8.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Tom Cat Tuesday 20.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Antrax 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Mendels Mate 6.00 1 2-1
4 4 Vintur 6.00 5.2 10-1
11 11 West End Kid 2.00 5.6 11-1
9 9 Zakinthos 5.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Fancy Sailor 4.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Exonerate 3.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Time for America 8.00 7.3 14-1
10 10 Zeus’s Echo 12.00 7.4 14-1
7 7 Classic Tap 15.00 8.6 16-1
2 2 Casa Cielo 15.00 9.3 18-1
12 12 Brave Force 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Chambersville 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Mischief Ride 30.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Sunrise 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.