Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, May 9, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Pop Paul 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Landing Craft 2.50 2.1 4-1
2 2 Muir Woods 8.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Dispersion 10.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Army Wildcatter 6.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Skynet 4.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 Nash Potatoes 8.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 Longstrider 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Click 1.60 1 2-1
2 2 Voluntold 12.00 1.1 2-1
8 8 Frosty for Ever 4.00 1.6 3-1
7 7 Pauline’s Angel 30.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Muscle Mommy 20.00 6.9 13-1
3 3 Crystal Frost 8.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Total Fabrication 6.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Sweetbitters 3.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Chiquita’s Way 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Consolidated 6.00 1 2-1
2 2 Armed N Dangerous 3.00 3 6-1
1 1 Mirage 1.80 3.3 6-1
6 6 Askari 4.00 3.7 7-1
5 5 Baytown Bruiser 5.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Emancipation 20.00 6.2 12-1
3 3 Truly Legit 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 I Don’t Get It 1.80 1 2-1
1 1 Warrior Richard 2.50 2 4-1
5 5 Authentic Gallop 8.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Eye Witness 8.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Skyro 3.00 2.8 5-1
7 7 Bestfriend Rocket 10.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Zapruder 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Comprehensive 1.50 1 2-1
3 3 Royal Causeway 8.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Limelight 20.00 6 11-1
2 2 Supercharger 6.00 6.3 12-1
4 4 Sigfrid 4.50 6.4 12-1
11 11 Mr Bobo 12.00 7.5 14-1
6 6 Swerve 12.00 8.1 15-1
10 10 Hey Dey 15.00 8.3 16-1
12 12 Culper Code 20.00 8.6 16-1
5 5 Irish Mojo 15.00 9.4 18-1
9 9 Bluegrass Pike 20.00 9.9 19-1
7 7 In America 30.00 13.4 25-1
16 16 Lahainaluna 4.00 SCRATCH
14 14 T V Channel 5.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Maximus Prime 6.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Terre Haute 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Sharons Angels 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 In Rainbows 6.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Scuffle 4.50 5.9 11-1
9 9 Tims 10.00 6.4 12-1
7 7 Rochester 12.00 7.1 13-1
2 2 Stone County 4.00 8 15-1
4 4 Run Like Forrest 20.00 8.3 16-1
1 1 Sequoia Stars 10.00 8.9 17-1
8 8 Gentleman Jim 5.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Grand Luxx 3.50 1 2-1
7 7 Empath 6.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Jaboss 4.50 4.8 9-1
3 3 Wrong Shoes 2.00 6 11-1
8 8 Sassy Fox 15.00 6.1 12-1
9 9 What’s the Tea 8.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Trapped 10.00 SCRATCH
2 2 California Smoke 20.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Special Sauce 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Sumood 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 Monterey Bay 8.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Dr. Park 12.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Two Beers by Ten 4.50 4.8 9-1
3 3 Love’m Or Liam 4.00 7.3 14-1
11 11 Sheriff Bart 6.00 7.5 14-1
10 10 Jimmy Rules 20.00 9.7 18-1
13 13 B B Prince 30.00 10.4 20-1
2 2 Rocky Joy 15.00 10.7 20-1
6 6 Master of Light 30.00 10.9 21-1
9 9 Cinister Cix 8.00 11 21-1
14 14 Taunting 30.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Master Controller 20.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Show of Force 30.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Shure 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Admiral Dennis 1.40 1 2-1
6 6 Gould’s Gold 2.50 1.5 3-1
2 2 Bernin Hot 6.00 1.9 4-1
5 5 Tiztastic 5.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Timeout 8.00 2.6 5-1
4 4 Tennessee Lamb 10.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 Welaka 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (William Walker S.) – William Walker S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Outfielder 1.60 1 2-1
4 4 Sandal’s Song 6.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Ketchum 20.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Throckmorton 3.00 4.3 8-1
1 1 Reb Five 4.00 4.6 9-1
5 5 Rebel With a Cause 10.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Walter the Mason 30.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Twilight Delight 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Cognizant 10.00 1 2-1
12 12 Rockin Robin 4.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 Daring Madison 6.00 2.1 4-1
11 11 Quick to Charm 5.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Lil Tipsy 8.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Lost Chord 20.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Cosmopolitan Lady 20.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Passionfruit 6.00 7.6 14-1
2 2 Ships Inn 6.00 7.9 15-1
9 9 Full Dolly 20.00 8.8 17-1
3 3 Tanya’s Momentum 15.00 9 17-1
10 10 West of Lex 12.00 9.9 19-1
13 13 Donna Strada 20.00 13 25-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.