Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, May 10, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Speech and Drama 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 Sweet Mary 1.80 1.4 3-1
5 5 Yalina 10.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 I Know Nothing 4.50 3.4 6-1
7 7 Wine’s Mistress 6.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Three Sock Sadie 8.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Angel Life 30.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Sr Seventyone 12.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Theprincessfactor 2.00 1 2-1
5 5 Haleakala 5.00 1.2 2-1
6 6 Theoretically 8.00 1.2 2-1
8 8 Authentic Angel 3.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 Mustang Lady 6.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Zen Yoga 8.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 Firebird Suite 10.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Tiz Salty 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Next Up 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Thatsalrightmama 3.00 3 6-1
8 8 Thea 6.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Poema 20.00 6.5 12-1
6 6 Gal Capone 30.00 7.3 14-1
3 3 Planet Clare 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Country Club 4.50 SCRATCH
2 2 Hello Angel 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Bamtwentyklater 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 From Scratch 2.50 1.2 2-1
5 5 Scribble 4.50 1.3 2-1
3 3 California Smoke 30.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 Menkaure 6.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 Merry Madison 8.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Lovely Words 6.00 4.1 8-1
7 7 Dolce Vino 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Write Off Jerry 4.00 1 2-1
3 3 Offlee Naughty 6.00 2.8 5-1
9 9 Army Officer 8.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Curahee 5.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Risk Manager 15.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Protonic Power 30.00 5.4 10-1
8 8 Sugoi 10.00 5.5 10-1
11 11 War Officer 12.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 The Minkster 30.00 6.3 12-1
10 10 Factor Analysis 6.00 6.6 12-1
7 7 Taunting 20.00 6.7 13-1
12 12 Tapit Shoes 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Next Time 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Big Nelson 20.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Carson 10.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Richeztoo 5.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Circle the Storm 15.00 4.6 9-1
11 11 Power Aura 8.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 Kisses From Brazil 30.00 6.3 12-1
4 4 Cause Ima Boss 15.00 9 17-1
12 12 Malevaje 50.00 9.5 18-1
6 6 Carcar Express 4.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Barstool 30.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Start Out 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Authentic Patriot 1.20 1 2-1
5 5 Discotheque 6.00 1.2 2-1
1 1 Rock Music 4.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Buntus Foclora 8.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Pelican Hill 10.00 6.6 12-1
9 9 Soho Jimmy 30.00 6.8 13-1
11 11 Torre Eiffel 20.00 6.9 13-1
6 6 Accord 15.00 8 15-1
2 2 Barracks 15.00 8.1 15-1
10 10 Stormiest 30.00 10 19-1
8 8 Blessed Warrior 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Princess Em Too 10.00 1 2-1
1 1 Competitive Market 3.50 3.6 7-1
5 5 Sunshine Daydream 6.00 3.6 7-1
11 11 Betty’s Dance 12.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Princess Attitude 4.50 6.4 12-1
12 12 Totally Justified 5.00 6.6 13-1
10 10 Swing Vote 15.00 7 13-1
8 8 Gerlin’s Empire 12.00 7.5 14-1
6 6 Bojaca Blessing 8.00 7.6 14-1
13 13 State of Joy (IRE) 20.00 7.6 14-1
4 4 Winning Streep 12.00 9.2 17-1
9 9 Temple Goddess 30.00 12.6 24-1
15 15 Morana 6.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Tetiaroa 20.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Spa Prospector 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Icona (IRE) 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Gethsemane 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Miracle Mark 1.80 2.1 4-1
4 4 Big Garry 20.00 3.5 7-1
9 9 Hot Property 4.50 4.2 8-1
7 7 Show of Force 15.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 White Whale 10.00 6.6 12-1
8 8 Start Mo Up 30.00 7.9 15-1
3 3 Admiral Hall 12.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Clocker Special 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 American Debutante (IRE) 2.50 1 2-1
14 14 Just Entitled 6.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Birch Run 30.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Emerald Spun 8.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Munny Reigns 20.00 5 9-1
2 2 Empress Sisi 15.00 5.9 11-1
10 10 Elida’s Angel (IRE) 5.00 7.4 14-1
3 3 One Happy Island 20.00 8.3 16-1
12 12 Tulip 12.00 9 17-1
7 7 Lady Sybil 12.00 11.4 22-1
4 4 Wujood 30.00 12.5 24-1
16 16 Charted Destiny 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Wonzee Weather 15.00 SCRATCH
9 9 That Wasn’t Me 6.00 SCRATCH
15 15 In Speight of Zoom 30.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Private Property (IRE) 4.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.