Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Honky Tonk Girl | 4.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Spun Tight | 8.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Juneau | 3.50 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Cardio Cat | 1.40 | 3 | 6-1 |
| 5 | 5 | By Grace | 10.00 | 4.7 | 9-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Lady Lux | 15.00 | 6.1 | 12-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Lucky Lollipop | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Baytown Ona | 8.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | 3 | Global Sensation | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Martini Blu | 4.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Nip N Tuck | 30.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Ready to Pounce | 5.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Creek | 12.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Be Here | 8.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Derby Date | 6.00 | 6.4 | 12-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Ready to Roll | 15.00 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Raising Kane | 3.50 | 9.9 | 19-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Ready Pursuit | 50.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Nilo’s Rose | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Liuzza | 3.50 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Beira | 5.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Tiffany Twist | 6.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Story Hour | 4.50 | 5.3 | 10-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Sunset Harbour | 8.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Steampunk | 15.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Just an Opinion | 10.00 | 8.3 | 16-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Rosieontheriver | 20.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Cut Throat | 3.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Crossfire | 4.50 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Bardstown Road | 12.00 | 9.2 | 17-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Beach Sandals | 6.00 | 9.6 | 18-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Ali’s Glory | 30.00 | 10.2 | 19-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Captain Luke | 10.00 | 10.8 | 20-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Take Charge Beach | 20.00 | 11 | 21-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Goodbye to Romance | 15.00 | 11.1 | 21-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Munny Jack | 6.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Fortune King | 30.00 | 12.1 | 23-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Stazitto | 20.00 | 12.2 | 23-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Bourbon Town | 6.00 | 12.6 | 24-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Rock Havoc | 15.00 | 13 | 25-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Presider | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 6 | 6 | End of Romance (IRE) | 20.00 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Clyde’s Got a Gun | 20.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Noble Confessor | 8.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Coiled | 8.00 | 5.5 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Soleil Volant | 20.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 15 | 15 | Tapit Shoes | 15.00 | 5.8 | 11-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Carcano | 4.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Royal Majesty (GB) | 4.50 | 10.2 | 19-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Freedom’s Way | 10.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Westside Tide | 6.00 | 10.9 | 21-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Harrow | 20.00 | 11.8 | 22-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Goldeneye | 20.00 | 13.2 | 25-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Daunt | 30.00 | 13.7 | 26-1 |
| 7 | 7 | The Hidden Chamber | 20.00 | 15 | 28-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 2 | Hurry Hurry | 12.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Inexorable | 4.50 | 2.6 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Curlin’s Malibu | 2.50 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Classic Car Wash | 3.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Carolo Rapido | 10.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Badge of War | 6.00 | 6.3 | 12-1 |
| 6 | 6 | House United | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Keen Cat | 5.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Render Judgment | 3.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Fear of Union | 6.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Coalmoon | 3.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Fourth Dimension | 1.80 | 4.6 | 9-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Master Controller | 10.00 | 5.4 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Sixtyseven Mustang | 20.00 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Fountain Run | 5.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | 9 | Newsrelease | 5.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Twirling Claire | 2.50 | 5.7 | 11-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Belle Amour | 8.00 | 6.6 | 12-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Spare Me | 6.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Conquering Marin (IRE) | 3.50 | 7.3 | 14-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Redhawk Riddler | 6.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Vivianite | 15.00 | 8.9 | 17-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Retrospective | 12.00 | 9.4 | 18-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Prosecco Gal | 4.50 | 9.5 | 18-1 |
| 16 | 16 | Sweettalkingwoman | 20.00 | 11.5 | 22-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Cardiff Reef | 20.00 | 12.2 | 23-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Princess Julie | 20.00 | 12.4 | 23-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Poverty With Aview | 30.00 | 13.9 | 26-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Sheer Jazz | 30.00 | 14.9 | 28-1 |
| 15 | 15 | Fraud Alert | 30.00 | 14.9 | 28-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Amazon Time | 30.00 | 16 | 30-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.