Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, May 15, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Big Rog 3.50 1 2-1
3 3 Carcar Express 1.20 2.5 5-1
6 6 Weekend Reveille 8.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 Fitzgerald 2.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Paired 12.00 5 9-1
4 4 The Reinbow Factor 20.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Watershed Moment 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 In for a Spin 3.50 3.5 7-1
5 5 Souperrazzledazzle 20.00 4 7-1
6 6 Buckeye Bombshell 1.40 4.3 8-1
2 2 River Rise 8.00 4.9 9-1
7 7 She’s Gotta Go 4.50 6 11-1
3 3 Luck of the Day 30.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Nation 4.00 1 2-1
2 2 Air of Defiance 3.50 1.8 3-1
1 1 Highly Flammable 8.00 3 6-1
5 5 Upturned Brim 15.00 4 8-1
7 7 Get Her Number 0.80 SCRATCH
3 3 Lord Majesty 12.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Tiverton (GB) 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Lady Chanel 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Pierette 6.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Margie’s Girl 15.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Smoke 4.50 4.5 9-1
4 4 Lookin’ Pretty 6.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Epic Spender 3.50 6.2 12-1
6 6 Luminous Beauty 8.00 7.1 13-1
7 7 Tuxca 30.00 8 15-1
3 3 Rock Your Dreams 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Freaks Go 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Pulstar 5.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Glazin’ Fury 4.50 4 8-1
5 5 Clap Back 6.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Heaven’s Bolt 10.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Trapped 15.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Final Shipman 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Hereforagoodtime 3.00 1 2-1
9 9 Ontario 5.00 1.2 2-1
6 6 Sol d’Oro 8.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Caviar Breakfast 6.00 4 8-1
5 5 Strong Destiny 4.50 4.3 8-1
8 8 Massarat 20.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Befriended 4.00 6.3 12-1
7 7 Unmerited Favor 10.00 8.2 15-1
3 3 Ceniza Pampa (ARG) 10.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Sassy and Bold 12.00 1 2-1
5 5 Talkin in Cursive 4.50 4 7-1
2 2 Pop Rox 1.20 4.2 8-1
7 7 Protomagic 20.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Margoinabubblebath 3.50 4.7 9-1
4 4 Miranda’s Rocky 6.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Chaparrita 15.00 7 13-1
3 3 Gladriel 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Running Away 1.80 1 2-1
6 6 Peignoir 2.50 2.4 4-1
7 7 Miss Authentic 8.00 4.5 9-1
3 3 In Just My Heels 12.00 4.7 9-1
5 5 Yes It Tiz 3.50 5.9 11-1
4 4 Chilled 5.00 6 11-1
2 2 Cat’s Cave 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Astronomer 8.00 1 2-1
1 1 Baby Max 12.00 1.2 2-1
8 8 Judge Davis 3.00 1.3 3-1
3 3 Silent Heart 5.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Smokey Mandate 4.00 4.7 9-1
9 9 Idratherbeblessed 20.00 4.8 9-1
7 7 Tarantino 8.00 5 9-1
2 2 Legalize 4.50 5.1 10-1
4 4 Andthewinneris 8.00 8.6 16-1
6 6 Secret Chat 30.00 10 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.