Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, May 15, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Carcar Express 1.20 1 2-1
2 2 Fitzgerald 2.00 1.2 2-1
1 1 Big Rog 3.50 1.6 3-1
6 6 Weekend Reveille 8.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Paired 12.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 The Reinbow Factor 20.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Buckeye Bombshell 1.40 1 2-1
4 4 Watershed Moment 3.00 1.3 3-1
1 1 In for a Spin 3.50 1.4 3-1
7 7 She’s Gotta Go 4.50 1.7 3-1
2 2 River Rise 8.00 2.4 4-1
5 5 Souperrazzledazzle 20.00 4.9 9-1
3 3 Luck of the Day 30.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Get Her Number 0.80 1 2-1
2 2 Air of Defiance 3.50 1.8 3-1
4 4 Nation 4.00 2 4-1
1 1 Highly Flammable 8.00 3.3 6-1
3 3 Lord Majesty 12.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 Upturned Brim 15.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Tiverton (GB) 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Lady Chanel 2.50 1 2-1
9 9 Epic Spender 3.50 1.3 2-1
2 2 Smoke 4.50 1.6 3-1
1 1 Pierette 6.00 2 4-1
4 4 Lookin’ Pretty 6.00 2 4-1
6 6 Luminous Beauty 8.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Rock Your Dreams 10.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Margie’s Girl 15.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Tuxca 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Freaks Go 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Glazin’ Fury 4.50 2 4-1
7 7 Final Shipman 4.50 2 4-1
2 2 Pulstar 5.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Clap Back 6.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Heaven’s Bolt 10.00 4.6 9-1
1 1 Trapped 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Hereforagoodtime 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Befriended 4.00 1.5 3-1
5 5 Strong Destiny 4.50 1.7 3-1
9 9 Ontario 5.00 1.9 4-1
1 1 Caviar Breakfast 6.00 2.4 5-1
6 6 Sol d’Oro 8.00 3.4 6-1
7 7 Unmerited Favor 10.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Ceniza Pampa (ARG) 10.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Massarat 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Pop Rox 1.20 1 2-1
6 6 Margoinabubblebath 3.50 1.9 4-1
5 5 Talkin in Cursive 4.50 2.2 4-1
4 4 Miranda’s Rocky 6.00 2.8 5-1
3 3 Gladriel 10.00 4.3 8-1
8 8 Sassy and Bold 12.00 5 9-1
1 1 Chaparrita 15.00 6.1 12-1
7 7 Protomagic 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Running Away 1.80 1 2-1
6 6 Peignoir 2.50 1.2 2-1
5 5 Yes It Tiz 3.50 1.6 3-1
4 4 Chilled 5.00 2.1 4-1
7 7 Miss Authentic 8.00 3 6-1
3 3 In Just My Heels 12.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Cat’s Cave 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Judge Davis 3.00 1 2-1
5 5 Smokey Mandate 4.00 1.3 3-1
2 2 Legalize 4.50 1.5 3-1
3 3 Silent Heart 5.00 1.7 3-1
7 7 Tarantino 8.00 2.7 5-1
10 10 Astronomer 8.00 2.7 5-1
4 4 Andthewinneris 8.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Baby Max 12.00 4 8-1
9 9 Idratherbeblessed 20.00 6.7 13-1
6 6 Secret Chat 30.00 10 19-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.