Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, May 17, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Al Amjaad 4.00 1 2-1
3 3 Whatever 15.00 3 6-1
4 4 Hutchinson 6.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 Music Theory 15.00 4 8-1
5 5 Prayer 1.20 SCRATCH
6 6 Consequential 3.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Pay Heed 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Bachelor Party 2.00 1 2-1
8 8 Mo Indian Lady 10.00 1.2 2-1
5 5 Fermi 8.00 3.4 7-1
7 7 Vinno Ronnie 6.00 3.9 7-1
2 2 Traject 10.00 4 8-1
4 4 Turkish Pistachio 3.00 4 8-1
3 3 Quibble 15.00 7 13-1
1 98 Authentic Angel 0.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Issachar 1.60 1 2-1
8 8 Joe Joe Dude 3.50 1.4 3-1
6 6 Cubalibre 4.50 3.3 6-1
7 7 Duval 6.00 3.3 6-1
9 9 Cross Power 30.00 4 8-1
3 3 Tiz General 20.00 6.8 13-1
1 1 Camping Siete 20.00 7 13-1
2 2 Trim Castle 15.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Heart of a Hero 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Be the Light 4.00 1 2-1
1 1 Clairita 1.60 2.3 4-1
3 3 Go to Girl 15.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Market Chill 5.00 5 9-1
2 2 Answered Prayers 3.00 5 9-1
7 7 Tetiaroa 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 So Like Silk 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Guardian 1.60 1 2-1
6 6 After Party 4.50 SCRATCH
4 4 War Munny 6.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 A Cab On the Rocks 12.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Stefan’s Title 30.00 5 10-1
7 7 Dewy’s Denali 15.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Mo Hair Sam 10.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Lucius Verus 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Takemetothebeach 4.50 1 2-1
5 5 Classy’n Connected 3.50 4.5 8-1
6 6 Cozy Curlin Kitten 6.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 Goats On a Tree 1.20 5.8 11-1
3 3 Lady Orient 15.00 7.8 15-1
9 9 Jill Jitterbug 15.00 7.9 15-1
2 2 All About Me 30.00 8 15-1
1 1 Goodbetterbest 8.00 8 15-1
7 7 Freak City 50.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Flashy Rich Deal 10.00 1 2-1
3 3 Don’s Winner 15.00 3.3 6-1
9 9 Deep Flame 1.60 3.5 7-1
5 5 Puteketeke 8.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Great Moment 6.00 4.6 9-1
11 11 Embry Show 3.50 4.6 9-1
8 8 Armet 12.00 5.6 10-1
4 4 Crevalli 20.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 Ecosystem 20.00 5.7 11-1
2 2 Justice 30.00 5.8 11-1
10 10 Monster Cookie 20.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Untamed Moment 6.00 1 2-1
2 2 Me and Molly McGee 2.50 2.4 5-1
1 1 Mendela 8.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Lovin’ On the Run 30.00 5.5 10-1
7 7 Velvet Vortex 6.00 7.1 13-1
8 8 Blue Fire 3.00 7.7 15-1
10 10 Beauty Reigns 4.00 7.8 15-1
9 9 L. A. Woman 20.00 8 15-1
4 4 Miss Enchanted 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Flash Wear 50.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Military Cruiser 4.00 1 2-1
4 4 Absolutely Hot 15.00 1.9 4-1
7 7 Schwarzenegger 1.60 2.8 5-1
6 6 Double Talker 6.00 2.9 5-1
8 8 Frontier Justice 30.00 2.9 6-1
2 2 Poppa Echo 15.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Magic Brew 12.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 Ancient History 20.00 7.6 14-1
10 10 Rose Ruler 8.00 8.8 17-1
9 9 Taterpie 15.00 9.4 18-1
1 1 Long Pour 20.00 10.1 19-1
11 11 Mega Magic 20.00 12 23-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.