Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, May 21, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Go New York Go 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Lack of Riesling 6.00 3.3 6-1
10 10 Belden Rue 4.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Fuego Sunset 8.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Valentine Eve 5.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Belleza Latina 15.00 7.5 14-1
9 9 Youhadme At Merlot 15.00 7.5 14-1
7 7 Princess Chanty 20.00 8 15-1
6 6 Velvet Beretta 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 La Belle Vie 6.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Shiftyindependence 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Sassy Princess 1.40 1 2-1
6 6 R Pretty Kitty 3.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Musical Prayer 3.50 2.7 5-1
5 5 Tizntshelovely 6.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Progeny 20.00 5.8 11-1
4 4 Baytown Butterfly 4.50 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Randie’s Rascal (GB) 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Shining Moment 2.50 1.3 2-1
12 12 Hazy Horizon 2.00 2.3 4-1
9 9 Zimomo 12.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Play It Again 4.00 4.7 9-1
10 10 Wartime 6.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Agate 15.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 Dee Snook (IRE) 10.00 9.2 17-1
4 4 Hide N Watch 15.00 9.7 18-1
11 11 Mr Gerson 8.00 10 19-1
3 3 Zee R One 30.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Fire Marshal 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Uncle Evco 5.00 1 2-1
5 5 Admiral Hall 6.00 1.2 2-1
2 2 Bob’s Carrot 3.50 3.1 6-1
3 3 Handsome Herb 4.50 3.6 7-1
8 8 Keep On Moving 2.50 4.7 9-1
1 1 Easy Dial 12.00 5.1 10-1
6 6 Michael’s Cove 8.00 5.3 10-1
4 4 Damascus Steel 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Exploration 4.00 1 2-1
7 7 Barksdale 3.50 3 6-1
9 9 Invulnerable 15.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Gee No Hollander 8.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Normandy Coast 5.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Real Fast 15.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Coming in Hot 20.00 6.3 12-1
6 6 Scat Free 10.00 6.3 12-1
1 1 Funny Uncle 10.00 6.5 12-1
10 10 Swill 20.00 10 19-1
11 11 Tagliatelle 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Dresden Row 4.00 1 2-1
8 8 Lambeth 5.00 1.1 2-1
6 6 Wadsworth 6.00 1.2 2-1
3 3 Ole Crazy Bone 3.50 1.6 3-1
1 1 Encino 6.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Herchee 8.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 Theismann 12.00 4.9 9-1
9 9 Flying Mohawk 8.00 8 15-1
4 4 Anglophile 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Dreaminblue 6.00 1 2-1
7 7 U Devil You 5.00 1 2-1
1 1 Multitask 12.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Built 1.40 4 7-1
2 2 Extra Anejo 6.00 4 8-1
4 4 Macho Music 4.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Track Mate 8.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 Prince of Power 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Raging Current 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Olympic Star 4.00 1.5 3-1
9 9 Let ‘er Sizzle 6.00 4.8 9-1
13 13 Crystal Frost 10.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Blasphemous Rumors 6.00 6.4 12-1
5 5 Galatina 8.00 6.5 12-1
3 3 Queen McKinzie 5.00 6.7 13-1
2 2 Lexi’s Melody 30.00 6.9 13-1
11 11 Kopiana 15.00 8.7 16-1
8 8 Cocoa Nimbus 30.00 10 19-1
4 4 Gladly 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Betty Who 30.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Vino Alla Mora 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.