Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, May 22, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Vicki Rose 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 Sweet Bebsi 2.50 1.9 4-1
2 2 Spotaway 5.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Carol’s Melody 8.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Ashkenazi 15.00 5 9-1
3 3 Up the Creek 1.40 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Let Her Fly 10.00 1 2-1
4 4 Storm Diva 8.00 1.6 3-1
8 8 Express Success 3.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 Washton 6.00 3 6-1
9 9 Estardotoo 20.00 6 11-1
5 5 High Class Broad 20.00 6.9 13-1
3 3 Bee Crazy 6.00 7 13-1
6 6 Gee Tee 8.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Bit Tipsy 12.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Shining Moment 2.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Silver Magic 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Bourbon’s Fault 3.50 1 2-1
1 1 Army Officer 3.00 1.4 3-1
6 6 Tres Soles 10.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 C F V Bullet 6.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 Great Escape 2.00 6.3 12-1
5 5 Twirling Troillet 8.00 6.8 13-1
4 4 Bloodline 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 You Ain’t Poppn 1.20 1 2-1
1 1 Coastal Breeze 3.00 2.1 4-1
7 7 Livehappy 4.50 3.5 7-1
6 6 Mi Dinero 8.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Dr Fenn 20.00 6 11-1
4 4 Waco 15.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Smols 12.00 7 13-1
5 5 Spinning Pride 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Beautiful Twice 1.60 1 2-1
4 4 Danzig’s Dora 5.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Rando 3.50 3.3 6-1
6 6 Thatsalrightmama 4.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Taqdeer 6.00 4.5 8-1
5 5 Spankerboom 20.00 6.7 13-1
3 3 Ashes and Diamonds 10.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Higgins Boat 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Exact Estimate 3.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Honky Tonk Highway 5.00 3 6-1
3 3 In a Jam 15.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Otago 15.00 4.6 9-1
9 9 Morunning 10.00 6.2 12-1
11 11 Coco Cool 15.00 7 13-1
2 2 Beef Winslow 6.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Saint in the City 30.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Rigel 15.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Frosty Indulgence 8.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Sketch (IRE) 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 In Scope 4.00 1 2-1
5 5 Al Ghadeer 5.00 1.5 3-1
4 4 She’s Our Girl 15.00 2.9 5-1
9 9 Aegis 6.00 3.1 6-1
8 8 Island Flower 12.00 3.6 7-1
11 11 Bodacious Bay 8.00 7.9 15-1
1 1 Wedelia 6.00 8.2 16-1
2 2 Miss Complicated 12.00 8.3 16-1
3 3 Flash of Freedom 10.00 10.4 20-1
7 7 Fast Gun 8.00 10.4 20-1
6 6 Babysitter 15.00 11 21-1
12 12 Sonhador 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Mancuso 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Charted Destiny 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Wonzee Weather 20.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Daring Move 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Harrodsburg 6.00 1 2-1
3 3 Floodlites 2.50 1.7 3-1
2 2 Verifire 1.20 3.7 7-1
4 4 Tough Catch 4.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Thoughtthatcounts 8.00 5 9-1
5 5 Furio 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Sound Cause 15.00 1 2-1
7 7 Mary’s Boy Bolt 4.50 2.2 4-1
8 8 Lucky Mischief 10.00 4 8-1
9 9 Makutu 12.00 4.5 8-1
4 4 Garryowen 8.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Utopian 6.00 5.5 10-1
5 5 Tiz Freedom 12.00 7 13-1
2 2 The Dover Specter 3.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Razorcat 8.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Taunting 12.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Snare 4.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Gene and Jude 2.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Survivin’onaprayer 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Best Known Secret 30.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.