Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, May 23, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Sister Jean 1.80 1 2-1
2 2 Plaza Cue 1.20 1.1 2-1
3 3 Lunar Loop 2.50 1.5 3-1
5 5 Got What I Got 30.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Command the Stars 12.00 6 11-1
6 6 Grant’s Gretchen 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 My Bossy Lady 2.50 1 2-1
7 7 Black Ginger 3.50 2.4 4-1
1 1 Q’s Your Mama 3.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Sunset Harbour 6.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 First Hill 4.00 6.7 13-1
4 4 Ask Amanda 15.00 6.8 13-1
5 5 Street Painter 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Call Me Precious 1.00 1 2-1
2 2 McSniper 3.00 3.5 7-1
6 6 Bartender 3.50 5.3 10-1
5 5 Cold Case 8.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Speed Skater 10.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 G Rocks 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Bourbon Flight 2.00 1 2-1
6 6 Pacific 4.50 2 4-1
2 2 Maximum Promise 2.50 2.7 5-1
1 1 Pampered Prince 3.50 5.1 10-1
5 5 Global Quote 6.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 Weaponized 15.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Start Mo Up 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Salty Senorita 10.00 1 2-1
9 9 Blushing Justice 15.00 1.8 3-1
11 11 Wassail 20.00 2.2 4-1
14 14 Consider Me First 15.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Miss Pharaoh 6.00 3.7 7-1
13 13 Breaking Hearts 15.00 6 11-1
16 16 Modern Sound 8.00 SCRATCH
6 6 More Galilady 20.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Low Key in Love 12.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Cotillard 30.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Aunt Mo 30.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Love and Poetry 6.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Candy Rockette 15.00 SCRATCH
3 3 La Cantera (IRE) 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Amberglen (IRE) 4.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Icona (IRE) 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 National Charter 4.00 1 2-1
7 7 Cierto 6.00 1.5 3-1
6 6 Susan’s Boy 10.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Market Runner 1.40 2.5 5-1
4 4 Our Forefathers 3.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Nomolimbo 20.00 6 11-1
5 5 Midnight Playboy 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Exodus 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Jack Charles (GB) 4.50 3.5 7-1
11 11 Props 12.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Highway Patrol 15.00 3.8 7-1
9 9 Grab the Spark 3.50 4 8-1
8 8 Big Fuzz 12.00 9.7 18-1
5 5 Cardinal Union 8.00 9.8 19-1
3 3 Equilibrium 10.00 9.9 19-1
2 2 Chatterfield 20.00 9.9 19-1
10 10 J David 30.00 10 19-1
1 1 Against the Time 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Otto the Conqueror 5.00 1 2-1
9 9 Show Time 8.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Pinfire 3.50 4.6 9-1
8 8 Miacomet 30.00 5.2 10-1
6 6 Five o’ Somewhere 12.00 5.6 10-1
7 7 Furious Anger 30.00 6 11-1
10 10 Get Her Number 2.50 SCRATCH
11 11 Lundberg 15.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Turn Up the Trees 8.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Free Advice 30.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Star’s Image 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Keertana S.) – Keertana S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Golden Sunshine 4.00 1 2-1
3 3 Ayra Stark (ARG) 1.80 4.9 9-1
5 5 Way to Be Marie 6.00 5.2 10-1
2 2 Awesomesauce 8.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 Venencia (FR) 12.00 5.9 11-1
6 6 Virgin Colada 15.00 6.8 13-1
7 7 Queens Command (IRE) 20.00 7 13-1
1 1 Sultana 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 C McGriff 6.00 1 2-1
4 4 Just Like Max 20.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Non Conforming 4.50 3.9 7-1
3 3 Highly Connected 3.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Kid Twist 8.00 4.5 8-1
8 8 Mountain Wolf 30.00 5.7 11-1
1 1 Kokomo Joe 10.00 7 13-1
2 2 Gethsemane 1.40 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Heartbeat 3.50 1 2-1
11 11 Classic Glide 6.00 1.2 2-1
12 12 Cool American 15.00 2.7 5-1
7 7 Kittens Stormy Gal 10.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Aviso 6.00 4 8-1
8 8 McKinzie’s Glory 8.00 6 11-1
5 5 Tearin’up My Heart 8.00 8 15-1
3 3 Sussudio 15.00 8 15-1
14 14 Mint Driven 15.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Jerseys Parade 15.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Evelyn Louise 4.50 SCRATCH
9 9 Lady Blake 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Ocean Ripple 5.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Amazing Lady 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.