Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, May 23, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Plaza Cue 1.20 1 2-1
1 1 Sister Jean 1.80 1.1 2-1
3 3 Lunar Loop 2.50 1.2 2-1
4 4 Command the Stars 12.00 2.9 5-1
6 6 Grant’s Gretchen 15.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Got What I Got 30.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 My Bossy Lady 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Q’s Your Mama 3.00 1.2 2-1
7 7 Black Ginger 3.50 1.5 3-1
2 2 First Hill 4.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Sunset Harbour 6.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Street Painter 8.00 3.6 7-1
4 4 Ask Amanda 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Call Me Precious 1.00 1 2-1
2 2 McSniper 3.00 1.7 3-1
6 6 Bartender 3.50 1.9 4-1
5 5 Cold Case 8.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Speed Skater 10.00 4.2 8-1
3 3 G Rocks 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Bourbon Flight 2.00 1 2-1
2 2 Maximum Promise 2.50 1.2 2-1
1 1 Pampered Prince 3.50 1.5 3-1
6 6 Pacific 4.50 1.8 3-1
5 5 Global Quote 6.00 2.3 4-1
7 7 Weaponized 15.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Start Mo Up 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Icona (IRE) 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 Amberglen (IRE) 4.50 2.1 4-1
12 12 Love and Poetry 6.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 Miss Pharaoh 6.00 2.9 5-1
16 16 Modern Sound 8.00 4 8-1
3 3 La Cantera (IRE) 8.00 4 8-1
1 1 Salty Senorita 10.00 5.1 10-1
10 10 Low Key in Love 12.00 6.2 12-1
9 9 Blushing Justice 15.00 7.8 15-1
13 13 Breaking Hearts 15.00 7.8 15-1
2 2 Candy Rockette 15.00 7.8 15-1
14 14 Consider Me First 15.00 7.8 15-1
11 11 Wassail 20.00 10.6 20-1
6 6 More Galilady 20.00 10.6 20-1
7 7 Cotillard 30.00 16 30-1
15 15 Aunt Mo 30.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Market Runner 1.40 1 2-1
4 4 Our Forefathers 3.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 National Charter 4.00 1.8 3-1
7 7 Cierto 6.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Midnight Playboy 8.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Susan’s Boy 10.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Nomolimbo 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Exodus 2.00 1 2-1
9 9 Grab the Spark 3.50 1.5 3-1
4 4 Jack Charles (GB) 4.50 1.9 4-1
5 5 Cardinal Union 8.00 3.1 6-1
3 3 Equilibrium 10.00 3.9 7-1
11 11 Props 12.00 4.6 9-1
8 8 Big Fuzz 12.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Highway Patrol 15.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Chatterfield 20.00 7.4 14-1
10 10 J David 30.00 11 21-1
1 1 Against the Time 30.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Get Her Number 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Pinfire 3.50 1.4 3-1
3 3 Otto the Conqueror 5.00 1.9 4-1
4 4 Star’s Image 6.00 2.3 4-1
9 9 Show Time 8.00 3 6-1
5 5 Turn Up the Trees 8.00 3 6-1
6 6 Five o’ Somewhere 12.00 4.5 8-1
11 11 Lundberg 15.00 5.6 10-1
8 8 Miacomet 30.00 11 21-1
7 7 Furious Anger 30.00 11 21-1
1 1 Free Advice 30.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Keertana S.) – Keertana S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Ayra Stark (ARG) 1.80 1 2-1
1 1 Sultana 3.00 1.5 3-1
4 4 Golden Sunshine 4.00 1.9 3-1
5 5 Way to Be Marie 6.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Awesomesauce 8.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 Venencia (FR) 12.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Virgin Colada 15.00 6.1 11-1
7 7 Queens Command (IRE) 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Gethsemane 1.40 1 2-1
3 3 Highly Connected 3.00 1.4 3-1
5 5 Non Conforming 4.50 1.8 3-1
7 7 C McGriff 6.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 Kid Twist 8.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Kokomo Joe 10.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Just Like Max 20.00 5.6 10-1
8 8 Mountain Wolf 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Heartbeat 3.50 1 2-1
10 10 Evelyn Louise 4.50 1.5 3-1
13 13 Ocean Ripple 5.00 1.7 3-1
4 4 Aviso 6.00 2.2 4-1
11 11 Classic Glide 6.00 2.2 4-1
8 8 McKinzie’s Glory 8.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Tearin’up My Heart 8.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Kittens Stormy Gal 10.00 4.2 8-1
14 14 Mint Driven 15.00 6.6 13-1
1 1 Jerseys Parade 15.00 6.6 13-1
12 12 Cool American 15.00 6.6 13-1
3 3 Sussudio 15.00 6.6 13-1
6 6 Amazing Lady 20.00 9.1 17-1
9 9 Lady Blake 30.00 14 26-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.