Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, May 24, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Total Fabrication 4.50 1 2-1
5 5 Gladly 8.00 1.8 3-1
1 1 Hot Gamer 2.00 1.8 3-1
7 7 Berlinwin 10.00 3 6-1
4 4 Sweetbitters 3.50 5.8 11-1
9 9 Lil Braveheart 20.00 7.7 15-1
2 2 Dodecahedron 12.00 7.8 15-1
8 8 Motown Sound 15.00 8.4 16-1
6 6 Warm Up the Bus 6.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Systemic Change 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Big City 3.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Classic Legacy 4.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Real Macho 3.50 6.1 12-1
1 1 Notary 6.00 6.7 13-1
2 2 Evening News 20.00 6.8 13-1
4 4 Curlin’s Gesture 8.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Nasty Habit 8.00 1 2-1
6 6 Gardiner 10.00 3.4 6-1
2 2 Alder 15.00 5 10-1
5 5 Saint in the City 30.00 5.3 10-1
3 3 Chiseler 15.00 5.5 10-1
9 9 Mister Mmmmm 15.00 6 11-1
1 1 B D Valeski 12.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Let My People Go 3.50 SCRATCH
8 8 Antares 4.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Boltage 10.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Can’t Deny It 2.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 The Hund 15.00 1 2-1
7 7 Diamond Eyed Jack 6.00 1.3 2-1
9 9 Quarry 3.50 1.6 3-1
4 4 Flick 4.50 2.8 5-1
3 3 Rugged Love 6.00 3.5 7-1
2 2 Neigh Baby 8.00 6.3 12-1
5 5 Dixie Devil 12.00 7 13-1
1 1 Asheville 2.50 SCRATCH
6 6 He Has Game 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Nyquistador 2.50 1 2-1
10 10 Private Show 4.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Circuit Breaker 6.00 5.6 11-1
7 7 Don’s Last Ride 4.50 5.8 11-1
8 8 Surfin’ M 6.00 6.5 12-1
2 2 Pay Heed 20.00 6.5 12-1
9 9 Lasting Legacy 10.00 9.2 17-1
6 6 Stoic Sage 20.00 9.3 18-1
4 4 Tregetour 12.00 9.8 19-1
1 1 Globalist 15.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Munnings Talks 2.50 1 2-1
11 11 Core Memories 4.00 2.6 5-1
15 15 Immortalize 3.50 2.8 5-1
6 6 Pretty Tapit 8.00 3 6-1
8 8 Patron Silver 20.00 3.6 7-1
9 9 Last Curtain Call 8.00 5.3 10-1
5 5 Marcinkowski 20.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 Wonzee Weather 15.00 7.2 14-1
10 10 Zero Absolute 10.00 9 17-1
4 4 Eenymeanymightymo 10.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Eat Hay Run 4.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Hypnotica 6.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Dyna 6.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Blackwing 30.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Les 20.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Mundy Sweep 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Rowdy Riot 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Linebacker 8.00 1.1 2-1
7 7 Muir Woods 6.00 1.2 2-1
4 4 Flyin Private 8.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Bird the Legend 4.00 4 8-1
8 8 Nineteenfourtyfive 20.00 5.1 10-1
10 10 Coal Fired 20.00 7.8 15-1
1 1 Frosted Bull 20.00 8 15-1
3 3 Ruleroftheuniverse 2.50 SCRATCH
2 2 Election Night 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Being Myself 1.20 1 2-1
4 4 Union Mist 4.50 1.6 3-1
1 1 Anna’s Promise 3.50 5 9-1
2 2 Foreseen 5.00 5.4 10-1
3 3 Amarth 8.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Sierra November 6.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Lazlo 8.00 1 2-1
12 12 My Boy Tony 6.00 1.4 3-1
9 9 Telescopic 4.00 1.4 3-1
11 11 Ashley’s Archer 5.00 1.7 3-1
10 10 Warlander 15.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Write Off Jerry 6.00 3 6-1
4 4 Kicking Clear 12.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 King of Ashes 8.00 3.7 7-1
7 7 Steel 10.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Fort Thomas 20.00 4 8-1
1 1 Theodore George 20.00 5.3 10-1
13 13 Taunting 30.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Different Gravy 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Solaia 2.00 1 2-1
2 2 Smokin Hot Stuff 4.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Diagram 5.00 3.6 7-1
10 10 Donna Strada 20.00 4.3 8-1
9 9 With Kindness 6.00 5 10-1
8 8 Sweettalkingwoman 12.00 5 10-1
11 11 Balaclava 15.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 The Long Embrace 20.00 5.2 10-1
4 4 Spill the Sugar 15.00 10 19-1
6 6 Army Chic 20.00 10 19-1
12 12 Loriebeth 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Gucci Gammy 50.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Silvertown 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.