Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Monday, May 25, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Dontworryboutnothn 2.00 1 2-1
11 11 Captain Gabe 3.50 1.5 3-1
6 6 Ghost Protocol 6.00 2.4 5-1
1 1 Sinatra 8.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Mouqeer 8.00 3.1 6-1
7 7 Krewezin 12.00 4.6 9-1
3 3 Join 12.00 4.6 9-1
10 10 Rapid Ascent 15.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 My Lucky Penny 15.00 5.6 11-1
8 8 Telecaster 20.00 7.4 14-1
5 5 Kenwood Street 30.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Bourbon Town 1.60 1 2-1
7 7 Hey Tuff Guy 3.00 1.4 3-1
1 1 Time for Action 3.50 1.5 3-1
3 3 Gun for Glory 4.00 1.6 3-1
8 8 Gamerboy 10.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 Bistineau Blizzard 20.00 5.5 10-1
4 4 Cross Power 30.00 8 15-1
2 2 Fortune King 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Worry Be Gone 1.60 1 2-1
3 3 Snipsnippitysnip 2.00 1.1 2-1
7 7 Plaza Athenee (GB) 3.00 1.3 2-1
2 2 Ensorcell 8.00 2.4 4-1
6 6 Oraia 10.00 2.8 5-1
5 5 Malibu Smart 15.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Mint Driven 30.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 What’s Her Number 3.00 1 2-1
3 3 Ducat 3.50 1.2 2-1
2 2 Authentic Angel 4.00 1.3 3-1
5 5 California Smoke 6.00 2 4-1
10 10 Mamarsha 8.00 2.7 5-1
6 6 Dancewhenyoucan 10.00 3.3 6-1
9 9 Ride the Broom 12.00 4 8-1
8 8 I’m a Cookie Lover 15.00 5 9-1
1 1 Pauline’s Angel 20.00 6.7 13-1
4 4 Theoretically 30.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Storm the Streets 3.50 1 2-1
4 4 Just a Fair Shake 4.00 1.3 2-1
2 2 Arthur’s Court 5.00 1.8 3-1
9 9 Yellow Brick 6.00 2.4 4-1
7 7 Guns and Glory 6.00 2.4 4-1
5 5 Izzy d’Oro 6.00 2.4 4-1
8 8 Higginsville 10.00 4.6 9-1
6 6 Magic Grant 15.00 7.3 14-1
10 10 Protective 15.00 7.3 14-1
3 3 Wish Carefully 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Rational Theory 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Our Shenanigan 3.50 1.5 3-1
3 3 Shanett 4.00 1.7 3-1
4 4 Spun Candy 6.00 2.6 5-1
9 9 Transatlantic 6.00 2.6 5-1
8 8 Bourbon Serengeti 10.00 4.4 8-1
1 1 Good Call 10.00 4.4 8-1
7 7 Madeline’s Promise 15.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 Daring Hope 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Tamino 1.60 1 2-1
10 10 Wearebackyoungman 4.50 2.3 4-1
2 2 Clocker Special 6.00 3 6-1
4 4 McIlroy 8.00 3.9 7-1
13 13 Lucius Verus 8.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Lil Muggs 10.00 4.9 9-1
12 12 Good Mojo 12.00 5.8 11-1
1 1 Tripp’s Promise 12.00 5.8 11-1
3 3 Speedstorm 15.00 7.1 13-1
11 11 Army Wildcatter 20.00 9.4 18-1
14 14 Pop Paul 20.00 9.4 18-1
6 6 Longstrider 20.00 9.4 18-1
7 7 Southern Bullet 30.00 14 26-1
8 8 Gray Is Okay 30.00 14 26-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Winning Colors S.) – Winning Colors S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Usha 1.40 1 2-1
5 5 Kapoor 3.00 1.6 3-1
1 1 Foie Gras 5.00 2.4 4-1
6 6 One Magic Philly 6.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Zeitlos 8.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Jersey Pearl 10.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Spring Dancer 15.00 6.1 12-1
2 2 Dare to Fly 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Zihnal 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Lahainaluna 4.50 1.6 3-1
10 10 Vivaldi 6.00 2.4 5-1
4 4 Your Wildest Dream 6.00 2.4 5-1
12 12 Provider 6.00 2.4 5-1
13 13 War and Majesty 8.00 3.6 7-1
9 9 Wrathchild 10.00 4.7 9-1
11 11 Maximus Prime 10.00 4.7 9-1
16 16 Moon Channel 12.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 About Face 12.00 5.8 11-1
15 15 Drop Shot 15.00 7.5 14-1
3 3 Deerfield 15.00 7.5 14-1
1 1 Siyouincanada (FR) 15.00 7.5 14-1
2 2 Timayyyy 30.00 16 30-1
14 14 Power of Will 30.00 16 30-1
7 7 Wild Cat Curlin 30.00 16 30-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.