Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Monday, May 25, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Dontworryboutnothn 2.00 1 2-1
3 3 Join 12.00 3 6-1
1 1 Sinatra 8.00 4.9 9-1
10 10 Rapid Ascent 15.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Mouqeer 8.00 5 9-1
2 2 My Lucky Penny 15.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Krewezin 12.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Ghost Protocol 6.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Telecaster 20.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Kenwood Street 30.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Captain Gabe 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Bourbon Town 1.60 1 2-1
7 7 Hey Tuff Guy 3.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Gun for Glory 4.00 3.4 6-1
1 1 Time for Action 3.50 4.1 8-1
2 2 Fortune King 30.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Cross Power 30.00 7.1 13-1
6 6 Bistineau Blizzard 20.00 7.3 14-1
8 8 Gamerboy 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Snipsnippitysnip 2.00 1 2-1
2 2 Ensorcell 8.00 1 2-1
5 5 Malibu Smart 15.00 1.1 2-1
4 4 Worry Be Gone 1.60 1.4 3-1
6 6 Oraia 10.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Mint Driven 30.00 6 11-1
7 7 Plaza Athenee (GB) 3.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 California Smoke 6.00 1 2-1
8 8 I’m a Cookie Lover 15.00 1.8 3-1
6 6 Dancewhenyoucan 10.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Ducat 3.50 2.4 5-1
7 7 What’s Her Number 3.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Authentic Angel 4.00 8.4 16-1
1 1 Pauline’s Angel 20.00 8.8 17-1
10 10 Mamarsha 8.00 8.9 17-1
9 9 Ride the Broom 12.00 9 17-1
4 4 Theoretically 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Storm the Streets 3.50 1 2-1
9 9 Yellow Brick 6.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Protective 15.00 3 6-1
4 4 Just a Fair Shake 4.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Izzy d’Oro 6.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Arthur’s Court 5.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Magic Grant 15.00 6.1 11-1
7 7 Guns and Glory 6.00 6.2 12-1
8 8 Higginsville 10.00 9.3 18-1
3 3 Wish Carefully 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Spun Candy 6.00 1 2-1
3 3 Shanett 4.00 1.2 2-1
9 9 Transatlantic 6.00 1.2 2-1
6 6 Our Shenanigan 3.50 1.9 4-1
8 8 Bourbon Serengeti 10.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 Madeline’s Promise 15.00 8.5 16-1
2 2 Rational Theory 2.50 8.6 16-1
5 5 Daring Hope 20.00 9 17-1
1 1 Good Call 10.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Tamino 1.60 1 2-1
10 10 Wearebackyoungman 4.50 2.8 5-1
9 9 Lil Muggs 10.00 4.5 8-1
1 1 Tripp’s Promise 12.00 4.5 9-1
2 2 Clocker Special 6.00 4.7 9-1
4 4 McIlroy 8.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Southern Bullet 30.00 6.7 13-1
12 12 Good Mojo 12.00 6.8 13-1
3 3 Speedstorm 15.00 9.7 18-1
11 11 Army Wildcatter 20.00 10 19-1
14 14 Pop Paul 20.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Lucius Verus 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Gray Is Okay 30.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Longstrider 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Winning Colors S.) – Winning Colors S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Usha 1.40 1 2-1
1 1 Foie Gras 5.00 2.1 4-1
6 6 One Magic Philly 6.00 3.1 6-1
8 8 Jersey Pearl 10.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Zeitlos 8.00 4.4 8-1
2 2 Dare to Fly 20.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 Kapoor 3.00 7 13-1
4 4 Spring Dancer 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Lahainaluna 4.50 1 2-1
8 8 Zihnal 3.50 1.2 2-1
4 4 Your Wildest Dream 6.00 2.4 4-1
10 10 Vivaldi 6.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Siyouincanada (FR) 15.00 2.9 5-1
13 13 War and Majesty 8.00 4.5 9-1
11 11 Maximus Prime 10.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 About Face 12.00 4.8 9-1
9 9 Wrathchild 10.00 7.4 14-1
7 7 Wild Cat Curlin 30.00 10.3 20-1
2 2 Timayyyy 30.00 11 21-1
16 16 Moon Channel 12.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Power of Will 30.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Drop Shot 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Provider 6.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Deerfield 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.