Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, May 28, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 La Belle Vie 1.60 1 2-1
1 1 Vissino 2.50 2.5 5-1
3 3 Gates of Eden 20.00 3 6-1
8 8 Money Man Mike 15.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Trim Castle 6.00 3.4 6-1
5 5 Zee R One 20.00 6.6 12-1
6 6 Baytown Da Vinci 10.00 7 13-1
2 2 Big Falls 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Attersee 4.00 1 2-1
6 6 Social Hour 1.40 1.2 2-1
4 4 Timing Difference 3.50 1.6 3-1
1 1 Free Advice 15.00 3 6-1
5 5 Gamblers Tail 2.50 4 7-1
3 3 Politics 20.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Peak Perspective 4.50 1 2-1
7 7 Epic Reign 6.00 2.1 4-1
4 4 Ez Miss Sassy 2.50 4 8-1
1 1 By Her Decree 12.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Luxor Magic 8.00 5.5 10-1
8 8 Pacemaker 10.00 5.6 11-1
2 2 Exile 3.50 SCRATCH
5 5 Lead by Example 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Prince of Light 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Cptbobsbtwentynine 10.00 3.4 6-1
10 10 Gentleman Jim 5.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 Arabian Power 4.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Captain Mercury 8.00 4 8-1
6 6 El Ramundo 30.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Boss’ Deed 15.00 5.6 11-1
13 13 Intuitive Wisdom 3.00 5.7 11-1
11 11 Soho Jimmy 20.00 8.3 16-1
2 2 Blazing 30.00 8.3 16-1
9 9 Ando 20.00 11 21-1
5 5 Fawcett 15.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Barracks 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Desert Fox 6.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Thespian 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 West of East Texas 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Awesome Ruta 2.00 1 2-1
7 7 Clooney 3.00 1.3 2-1
9 9 Carolo Rapido 4.50 4.1 8-1
5 5 Pappy’s Revenge 15.00 5.6 11-1
3 3 Excel Calculator 20.00 6.1 12-1
2 2 Empire Builder 5.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Calycanthus 20.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Papa Yo 8.00 SCRATCH
8 8 Fountain Run 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Feminism 1.60 1 2-1
11 11 French Blue 6.00 1.8 3-1
5 5 Where Luck Lives 3.00 2.3 4-1
8 8 Woodstock 8.00 3.9 7-1
10 10 Spa Prospector 12.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Kayla’s Komet 15.00 7.8 15-1
9 9 Valala 20.00 7.9 15-1
7 7 Storm Cloud Rising 50.00 8 15-1
3 3 Our Two Girls 10.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Front Runnin 30.00 SCRATCH
2 2 If If If 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Murdock 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Banned for Life 12.00 1.1 2-1
3 3 We’re in Trouble 8.00 1.2 2-1
8 8 Camp Hale 8.00 1.9 4-1
10 10 Eakly 8.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Mischievous Rogue 6.00 4.5 9-1
13 13 Our Starry Night 8.00 6.3 12-1
11 11 Tarantino 20.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Surf City 30.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Sweet Dani Boy 12.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Moon Sniper 4.50 SCRATCH
1 1 Hogie the Player 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Star’s Image 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Nightmare Fuel 1.20 1 2-1
6 6 Getaholdayourself 10.00 2.4 5-1
1 1 Enticing Moves 15.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Cusp of Mischief 20.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Cloud Number Nine 12.00 5 10-1
7 7 Silvertown 8.00 5.8 11-1
10 10 Will Believe 6.00 5.9 11-1
11 11 Frosty for Ever 15.00 7.3 14-1
5 5 Shidoni 30.00 8.6 16-1
8 8 Chiquita’s Way 50.00 9.5 18-1
9 9 In for a Spin 4.50 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.