Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, May 29, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 True Passion 2.00 1 2-1
7 7 Briland 2.50 1.2 2-1
4 4 Tetiaroa 4.00 1.7 3-1
3 3 Outrageously 4.50 1.8 3-1
6 6 Tiz in Sight 6.00 2.3 4-1
5 5 Going Steady 10.00 3.7 7-1
2 2 Mazoku 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Tap to Open 1.20 1 2-1
3 3 Ati Girl 4.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Magic Woman 6.00 3 6-1
7 7 Lady Law 6.00 3 6-1
6 6 Alesiamae 8.00 3.9 7-1
9 9 Episist 12.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Twinklee 15.00 6.9 13-1
2 2 Perrylu 20.00 9 17-1
8 8 Charted Destiny 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Abbi Fede 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Mount Horeb 3.50 1.3 2-1
9 9 Sketch (IRE) 4.00 1.4 3-1
4 4 Alston 6.00 2 4-1
2 2 Rocky Joy 8.00 2.6 5-1
8 8 Sicilian Defense 8.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 Rapoport 10.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Gordon’s Legacy 12.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Survivin’onaprayer 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Gewurztraminer 2.00 1 2-1
3 3 Bearings 3.00 1.4 3-1
1 1 Glen Airy 4.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 Aristotle 5.00 2.2 4-1
7 7 King Russell 8.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Vamos Carlitos 10.00 4.1 8-1
5 5 Dance Some Mo 15.00 6.1 11-1
6 6 B Sudd 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Ace Jack Deuce 3.00 1 2-1
12 12 Wingfoot 3.50 1.2 2-1
11 11 Mandy’s Man Can 5.00 1.9 4-1
5 5 Torre Eiffel 6.00 2.3 4-1
10 10 Royal Sapphire 6.00 2.3 4-1
7 7 Hellacious 12.00 5 9-1
13 13 Jem’s Hershey Kiss 12.00 5 9-1
4 4 Major Mack 15.00 6.3 12-1
6 6 Roktar 15.00 6.3 12-1
8 8 Nyttime Story 20.00 8.6 16-1
9 9 Dark Rye 20.00 8.6 16-1
3 3 Activity 30.00 13 25-1
2 2 Power Aura 30.00 13 25-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
13 13 Culprit 3.00 1 2-1
8 8 Cant Stop Munnings 3.50 1.2 2-1
5 5 Footprint 4.00 1.4 3-1
1 1 Landing Craft 4.50 1.7 3-1
6 6 Petoskey Stones 6.00 2.3 4-1
10 10 Another Monarch 8.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Tingus Pingus 8.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Epic Summer 10.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Na Pali Joe 12.00 5 9-1
11 11 Comes a Time 15.00 6.3 12-1
9 9 So Special 20.00 8.6 16-1
7 7 Gray Is Okay 30.00 13 25-1
12 12 Leonardo 30.00 13 25-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Itzel 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Cloe 3.50 1.2 2-1
1 1 Fancy Caber Neigh 4.00 1.3 3-1
5 5 Satin Blue 5.00 1.7 3-1
8 8 Justinqueso 6.00 2 4-1
9 9 She’z the Law 10.00 3.3 6-1
2 2 High Fashion Kate 15.00 5 9-1
6 6 Junta 20.00 6.7 13-1
10 10 Tempting Eve 20.00 6.7 13-1
3 3 Stormy Paradise 30.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Munnings Challenge 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Small Town 3.50 1.4 3-1
8 8 Doublecents 4.50 1.7 3-1
4 4 Gun Range 5.00 1.9 4-1
9 9 American Man 6.00 2.1 4-1
3 3 Rockies Balboa 10.00 3.3 6-1
5 5 Hammond 12.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Vaporizer 30.00 9 17-1
6 6 Sav’n Money 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Raconteuse 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Daring Madison 4.00 1.6 3-1
7 7 Debby’s Gal 6.00 2.7 5-1
9 9 Sudden Squall 8.00 3.8 7-1
11 11 Haywinii 8.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Ribadeo 8.00 3.8 7-1
2 2 Tramuntana 8.00 3.8 7-1
15 15 English Harbour 10.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Howyoudosomething 12.00 6 11-1
16 16 Modern Escape 12.00 6 11-1
13 13 Lady Faye 15.00 7.7 14-1
10 10 Market Strategy 20.00 10.4 20-1
14 14 Mother Lode 20.00 10.4 20-1
6 6 Lucky to Dance 20.00 10.4 20-1
3 3 Speightsy Rival 20.00 10.4 20-1
12 12 Rotisserie 30.00 16 30-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.