Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, May 29, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Tetiaroa 4.00 1 2-1
1 1 True Passion 2.00 1.8 3-1
3 3 Outrageously 4.50 2.3 4-1
7 7 Briland 2.50 2.9 5-1
6 6 Tiz in Sight 6.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Going Steady 10.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Mazoku 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Episist 12.00 1 2-1
1 1 Tap to Open 1.20 1.4 3-1
5 5 Twinklee 15.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Lady Law 6.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Ati Girl 4.00 5.7 11-1
4 4 Magic Woman 6.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Perrylu 20.00 7.2 14-1
8 8 Charted Destiny 20.00 8.7 16-1
6 6 Alesiamae 8.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Mount Horeb 3.50 1 2-1
3 3 Abbi Fede 2.50 1.5 3-1
8 8 Sicilian Defense 8.00 1.8 3-1
2 2 Rocky Joy 8.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Gordon’s Legacy 12.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Alston 6.00 3.8 7-1
7 7 Rapoport 10.00 4.3 8-1
6 6 Survivin’onaprayer 30.00 5.7 11-1
9 9 Sketch (IRE) 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Gewurztraminer 2.00 1 2-1
1 1 Glen Airy 4.00 4.7 9-1
3 3 Bearings 3.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Aristotle 5.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 King Russell 8.00 5.9 11-1
5 5 Dance Some Mo 15.00 6.1 12-1
4 4 Vamos Carlitos 10.00 7.7 15-1
6 6 B Sudd 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Wingfoot 3.50 1 2-1
5 5 Torre Eiffel 6.00 1.6 3-1
7 7 Hellacious 12.00 2.4 5-1
1 1 Ace Jack Deuce 3.00 4.3 8-1
11 11 Mandy’s Man Can 5.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Roktar 15.00 6.6 12-1
8 8 Nyttime Story 20.00 6.7 13-1
4 4 Major Mack 15.00 6.7 13-1
10 10 Royal Sapphire 6.00 6.9 13-1
9 9 Dark Rye 20.00 11.9 23-1
3 3 Activity 30.00 11.9 23-1
2 2 Power Aura 30.00 12 23-1
13 13 Jem’s Hershey Kiss 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Cant Stop Munnings 3.50 1 2-1
6 6 Petoskey Stones 6.00 1.3 2-1
1 1 Landing Craft 4.50 1.4 3-1
3 3 Na Pali Joe 12.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 Epic Summer 10.00 5.8 11-1
10 10 Another Monarch 8.00 6.5 12-1
13 13 Culprit 3.00 6.7 13-1
7 7 Gray Is Okay 30.00 6.9 13-1
11 11 Comes a Time 15.00 9 17-1
5 5 Footprint 4.00 SCRATCH
9 9 So Special 20.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Leonardo 30.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Tingus Pingus 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Justinqueso 6.00 1 2-1
4 4 Cloe 3.50 1.3 2-1
5 5 Satin Blue 5.00 1.4 3-1
1 1 Fancy Caber Neigh 4.00 1.9 4-1
7 7 Itzel 3.00 2 4-1
2 2 High Fashion Kate 15.00 4.2 8-1
10 10 Tempting Eve 20.00 7.7 15-1
3 3 Stormy Paradise 30.00 8.9 17-1
6 6 Junta 20.00 9 17-1
9 9 She’z the Law 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 American Man 6.00 1 2-1
2 2 Munnings Challenge 2.00 1.8 3-1
8 8 Doublecents 4.50 1.9 4-1
5 5 Hammond 12.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Rockies Balboa 10.00 4.5 8-1
7 7 Vaporizer 30.00 7 13-1
4 4 Gun Range 5.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Small Town 3.50 SCRATCH
6 6 Sav’n Money 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Daring Madison 4.00 1 2-1
8 8 Raconteuse 3.00 1.1 2-1
9 9 Sudden Squall 8.00 1.7 3-1
10 10 Market Strategy 20.00 2.2 4-1
11 11 Haywinii 8.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Debby’s Gal 6.00 4.6 9-1
14 14 Mother Lode 20.00 6.8 13-1
5 5 Ribadeo 8.00 7.4 14-1
13 13 Lady Faye 15.00 8.9 17-1
6 6 Lucky to Dance 20.00 10.3 19-1
12 12 Rotisserie 30.00 11 21-1
15 15 English Harbour 10.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Howyoudosomething 12.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Speightsy Rival 20.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Tramuntana 8.00 SCRATCH
16 16 Modern Escape 12.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.