Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, May 30, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Battis Grove 0.80 1 2-1
1 1 Zengraya 8.00 1.9 4-1
7 7 Belle Amour 3.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Butterfly Jasmine 20.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Tammy’s Kiss 4.00 4.4 8-1
5 5 Island Barbie 20.00 4.9 9-1
6 6 Cue Pixie Dust 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Skyro 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 Attache 6.00 2.2 4-1
5 5 Oscar Eclipse 5.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Bernin Hot 8.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Tuskegee Airmen 8.00 4.4 8-1
3 3 Run Classic 2.50 4.4 8-1
4 4 Badge of War 4.50 5 10-1
6 6 Couperin 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Direct Strike 2.50 1 2-1
9 9 Bourbon Dream 4.50 1.5 3-1
7 7 Brave Pilot 8.00 1.5 3-1
6 6 Money Man 20.00 3.7 7-1
10 10 Oso de Oro 12.00 3.9 7-1
8 8 Desert Fox 30.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Boylston 20.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Reb 30.00 8 15-1
3 3 Silent Way 1.60 SCRATCH
1 1 Victory Corps 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
12 12 Mashallah 2.00 1 2-1
3 3 Betty’s Pearl 6.00 2.2 4-1
1 1 Majestical 15.00 2.4 5-1
7 7 Soaring High 8.00 4.1 8-1
4 4 Love and Trust 15.00 4.4 8-1
6 6 Essential Coffee 30.00 5.8 11-1
10 10 Passerine 6.00 6.1 11-1
13 13 Take Charge Macy 30.00 9.9 19-1
5 5 Smell the Lilies 20.00 10 19-1
8 8 Miss Call 30.00 10 19-1
2 2 Scot’s Law 12.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Measure 20.00 SCRATCH
11 11 La Rascasse 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Audubon S.) – Audubon S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Touch of Fire 2.00 1 2-1
8 8 Thousandsticks 4.50 2.4 4-1
6 6 Zeppelin 3.50 4.4 8-1
5 5 Kravitz 10.00 5.4 10-1
4 4 Tiernanogue 8.00 5.4 10-1
9 9 Serac 20.00 5.4 10-1
2 2 Baytown Dreamer 30.00 6 11-1
1 1 My Favorite Bird 6.00 6.4 12-1
3 3 Mr Mo’s Magic 12.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Zihnal 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Shawnee S.) – Shawnee S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Splendora 1.20 1 2-1
7 7 Immersive 3.50 1.7 3-1
3 3 Miss Justify 12.00 3.1 6-1
4 4 Majestic Oops 3.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Gin Gin 6.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 Too Much Kiki 15.00 6 11-1
2 2 Take Charge Omaha 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Old Forester Mint Julep S.) – Old Forester Mint Julep S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Pin Up Betty 3.50 1 2-1
8 8 Sweet Treasure 6.00 3 6-1
5 5 Proctor Street 3.00 3.2 6-1
4 4 Medoro 2.50 3.3 6-1
2 2 Favorite Memory (GB) 8.00 5.2 10-1
7 7 In the Stars 10.00 5.8 11-1
6 6 Vina Arana (IRE) 15.00 7 13-1
1 1 Charlene’s Dream 12.00 SCRATCH
9 9 Stylish Sue 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Aristides S.) – Aristides S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Roll On Big Joe 1.80 1 2-1
2 2 Cornucopian 2.50 2.1 4-1
4 4 Durante 10.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Mad House 3.50 3.3 6-1
5 5 Tejano Twist 12.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Gold Sweep 15.00 4.8 9-1
6 6 Madaket Road 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Regret S.) – Regret S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Indigo Woods (IRE) 4.00 1 2-1
8 8 Storm’s Wake 3.00 3.4 6-1
9 9 Tam Tam 2.50 4 8-1
6 6 Dandona 6.00 5 9-1
2 2 Surprise Ending 12.00 5.5 10-1
3 3 Trust Account 15.00 6.7 13-1
5 5 Faithful Departed 8.00 7 13-1
7 7 Call On Me 10.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Lilo Lil 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 10 (Blame S.) – Blame S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Hit Show 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Hall of Fame 6.00 3 6-1
4 4 Capital Idea 10.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 Rattle N Roll 4.00 5.4 10-1
7 7 Liberal Arts 20.00 6.5 12-1
5 5 Who Dey 12.00 6.9 13-1
6 6 Original Sin 15.00 7 13-1
8 8 Vibe 1.80 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Arlington S.) – Arlington S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 West Hollywood 10.00 1 2-1
3 3 Lagynos 2.50 1.2 2-1
9 9 Quatrocento 3.50 1.8 3-1
10 10 Brilliant Berti 4.50 4.2 8-1
6 6 Minaret Station 15.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Anglophile 20.00 5.5 10-1
11 11 Coal Battle 8.00 7.2 14-1
5 5 Giocoso 20.00 7.6 14-1
8 8 Mesero 15.00 9 17-1
7 7 Mercante 8.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Beach Gold 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.