Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, June 5, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Lost Chord 2.00 1 2-1
3 3 Watershed Moment 2.50 1.4 3-1
6 6 Max 3.50 2.3 4-1
5 5 Authentic Beauty 4.00 2.7 5-1
1 1 Souperrazzledazzle 8.00 6 11-1
4 4 Crevalla de Vil 8.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Summonyourcourage 2.00 1 2-1
3 3 Banned for Life 3.00 1.5 3-1
6 6 R Heisman 4.50 2.2 4-1
2 2 Optical 5.00 2.4 4-1
4 4 Special Caliber 6.00 2.9 5-1
1 1 Mo Work 8.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Brodeur 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Tisum 1.20 1 2-1
5 5 Bayou Flyer 3.50 2.1 4-1
2 2 Timberline 4.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Carcar Express 4.50 2.5 5-1
6 6 Jinxzi 6.00 3.2 6-1
1 1 Don’t Fire Joe 12.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Fuzzbuster 2.50 1 2-1
4 4 Cash Bonus 3.50 1.9 4-1
3 3 Catch Hound 4.50 2.7 5-1
14 14 Ink Lies 6.00 4 8-1
11 11 Dismiss 6.00 4 8-1
7 7 Halley’s Comet 8.00 5.7 11-1
15 15 Soulman 8.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 Stormtown 10.00 7.4 14-1
1 1 Equator 10.00 7.4 14-1
10 10 Sleeping Warrior 12.00 9.1 17-1
16 16 Mr. Vaggio 12.00 9.1 17-1
6 6 Tiz Authority 12.00 9.1 17-1
13 13 Zap d’Etat 15.00 11.7 22-1
9 9 Warnock 15.00 11.7 22-1
12 12 Final Countdown 20.00 16 30-1
2 2 High Honors 20.00 16 30-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Speech and Drama 1.80 1 2-1
6 6 Mo Town Foxy Brown 3.00 1.5 3-1
1 1 Texas Dandelion 3.50 1.7 3-1
3 3 Starfinder 6.00 2.6 5-1
5 5 My Blue Heaven 10.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Baytown Liberty 15.00 6.1 11-1
8 8 Baytown Ona 20.00 8 15-1
4 4 Sweet Mary 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Haleakala 1.60 1 2-1
6 6 Honor Azteca 3.50 2.1 4-1
2 2 Romany Road 4.50 2.7 5-1
4 4 Rhaenys 5.00 3 6-1
5 5 Mustang Lady 6.00 3.5 7-1
1 1 Vinno Ronnie 8.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 Tiz Salty 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Swift Blade 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 Dr. Agne 4.50 1.6 3-1
1 1 Six O Clock 5.00 1.7 3-1
10 10 Zeus’s Echo 6.00 2.1 4-1
9 9 Fancy Sailor 8.00 2.9 5-1
11 11 Patrol Squad Six 8.00 2.9 5-1
2 2 Beautiful War 8.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 Whatchadoin (IRE) 8.00 2.9 5-1
4 4 Archimedes 10.00 3.6 7-1
8 8 Zakinthos 12.00 4.3 8-1
3 3 Uncle Bucky 30.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Chairmanoftheboard 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Spirit of a Walkon 3.00 1.2 2-1
2 2 Nogradi 4.00 1.6 3-1
4 4 Maximum Promise 4.50 1.8 3-1
5 5 Hot Property 6.00 2.4 5-1
7 7 South Bend Tom 10.00 4 8-1
3 3 Secured Lender 12.00 4.8 9-1
8 8 Highly Connected 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Cliffs 2.50 1 2-1
10 10 Temptable (GB) 3.50 1.4 3-1
11 11 Princess Attitude 4.00 1.7 3-1
9 9 Serendipity 4.00 1.7 3-1
6 6 Bohemian 6.00 2.5 5-1
13 13 Calamity 8.00 3.4 6-1
4 4 Contrary 8.00 3.4 6-1
8 8 Necessity 10.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Daisy Flyer 12.00 5.2 10-1
12 12 Caviar Breakfast 12.00 5.2 10-1
1 1 Reining Flowers 15.00 6.5 12-1
7 7 Wind Flower 15.00 6.5 12-1
3 3 Poppy the Princess 30.00 13 25-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.