Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, June 5, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Watershed Moment 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Max 3.50 1.9 4-1
2 2 Lost Chord 2.00 3 6-1
5 5 Authentic Beauty 4.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Crevalla de Vil 8.00 6 11-1
1 1 Souperrazzledazzle 8.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Summonyourcourage 2.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Optical 5.00 1.8 3-1
4 4 Special Caliber 6.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Mo Work 8.00 4 8-1
3 3 Banned for Life 3.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Brodeur 15.00 SCRATCH
6 6 R Heisman 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Jinxzi 6.00 1 2-1
1 1 Don’t Fire Joe 12.00 2.9 5-1
3 3 Tisum 1.20 3.2 6-1
5 5 Bayou Flyer 3.50 3.4 7-1
2 2 Timberline 4.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Carcar Express 4.50 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Equator 10.00 1 2-1
8 8 Stormtown 10.00 2.2 4-1
4 4 Cash Bonus 3.50 2.6 5-1
5 5 Fuzzbuster 2.50 3.6 7-1
11 11 Dismiss 6.00 4.2 8-1
7 7 Halley’s Comet 8.00 5.9 11-1
2 2 High Honors 20.00 6.9 13-1
6 6 Tiz Authority 12.00 8.5 16-1
10 10 Sleeping Warrior 12.00 9 17-1
9 9 Warnock 15.00 10 19-1
14 14 Ink Lies 6.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Zap d’Etat 15.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Final Countdown 20.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Soulman 8.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Catch Hound 4.50 SCRATCH
16 16 Mr. Vaggio 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Speech and Drama 1.80 1 2-1
6 6 Mo Town Foxy Brown 3.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Sweet Mary 20.00 2.3 4-1
1 1 Texas Dandelion 3.50 2.8 5-1
5 5 My Blue Heaven 10.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Starfinder 6.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 Baytown Ona 20.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Baytown Liberty 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Haleakala 1.60 1 2-1
2 2 Romany Road 4.50 3.9 7-1
6 6 Honor Azteca 3.50 4.1 8-1
1 1 Vinno Ronnie 8.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Mustang Lady 6.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Rhaenys 5.00 5.8 11-1
7 7 Tiz Salty 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Zeus’s Echo 6.00 1 2-1
7 7 Dr. Agne 4.50 1.1 2-1
6 6 Swift Blade 3.00 1.7 3-1
1 1 Six O Clock 5.00 3 6-1
2 2 Beautiful War 8.00 3.8 7-1
9 9 Fancy Sailor 8.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Archimedes 10.00 4.1 8-1
8 8 Zakinthos 12.00 5.1 10-1
3 3 Uncle Bucky 30.00 5.2 10-1
11 11 Patrol Squad Six 8.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Whatchadoin (IRE) 8.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Spirit of a Walkon 3.00 1 2-1
7 7 South Bend Tom 10.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Nogradi 4.00 6 11-1
4 4 Maximum Promise 4.50 6.2 12-1
5 5 Hot Property 6.00 6.2 12-1
1 1 Chairmanoftheboard 2.50 6.8 13-1
3 3 Secured Lender 12.00 7 13-1
8 8 Highly Connected 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Contrary 8.00 1 2-1
8 8 Necessity 10.00 1.1 2-1
11 11 Princess Attitude 4.00 3 6-1
10 10 Temptable (GB) 3.50 3.5 7-1
5 5 Cliffs 2.50 4.9 9-1
9 9 Serendipity 4.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 Wind Flower 15.00 5.5 10-1
1 1 Reining Flowers 15.00 6.9 13-1
6 6 Bohemian 6.00 9 17-1
3 3 Poppy the Princess 30.00 10 19-1
13 13 Calamity 8.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Daisy Flyer 12.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Caviar Breakfast 12.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.