Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, June 7, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Thea 6.00 1 2-1
6 6 Starship Godiva 2.00 1.5 3-1
5 5 Spying 8.00 2.3 4-1
8 8 Moon Over Choctaw 3.50 3 6-1
9 9 Bourbon Serengeti 4.50 3.8 7-1
7 7 Angel Bella 8.00 5.3 10-1
2 2 Ashes and Diamonds 30.00 7.1 13-1
3 3 Gypsan 12.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Balaclava 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Ganaas 12.00 1 2-1
5 5 Arbiter 1.20 1.7 3-1
3 3 Hammond 8.00 2.4 4-1
1 1 Monster 3.00 4.2 8-1
6 6 I C Light 6.00 5 9-1
2 2 Gnome 20.00 SCRATCH
4 4 Trouble Calling 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Banksy’s 4.00 1 2-1
1 1 Embry Show 3.00 1.1 2-1
5 5 He Has Game 20.00 2 4-1
9 9 Penalty Box 2.50 2.4 5-1
8 8 Preside 4.50 4.1 8-1
3 3 Time to Strike 6.00 4.5 9-1
10 10 Mister Landry 30.00 7.1 13-1
7 7 Flaming Rainbow 20.00 8.5 16-1
4 4 Crevalli 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Sense of Freedom 50.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Cut to the Chase 2.50 1 2-1
3 3 Paradise City 4.50 4.7 9-1
1 1 Me and Molly McGee 3.50 4.9 9-1
6 6 Irina’s Charm 15.00 5.1 10-1
4 4 Rojo Rita 8.00 5.8 11-1
5 5 She’z the Law 10.00 5.9 11-1
8 8 Strong State 6.00 7.6 14-1
9 9 Sing a Little Song 8.00 8 15-1
2 2 Princess Aliyah 12.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 American Debutante (IRE) 4.00 1 2-1
7 7 Sneakily 3.00 2.4 4-1
6 6 Munny Reigns 20.00 2.4 5-1
1 1 Vow to Resiliency 5.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 Paseo 4.50 4.5 9-1
8 8 Temeraire 8.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Minstrelly 30.00 SCRATCH
4 4 That Wasn’t Me 15.00 7.5 14-1
9 9 Starla 12.00 9.7 18-1
11 11 Emerald Spun 10.00 10.2 19-1
10 10 Roiling 30.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Leslie’s Lady S.) – Leslie’s Lady S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 On Time Girl 1.80 1 2-1
3 3 Explora 1.40 1.7 3-1
1 1 A Fine Chardonnay 4.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Brooklyn Blonde 12.00 4 7-1
2 2 Shilling 30.00 4.8 9-1
5 5 Have Faith 20.00 4.9 9-1
4 4 Sneaky Good 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Icona (IRE) 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Totally Justified 8.00 4.1 8-1
11 11 Sea To Sky (IRE) 5.00 4.7 9-1
9 9 Madonna of Loreto 12.00 5.4 10-1
5 5 Midway Memories 4.00 6 11-1
7 7 Code 15.00 8.4 16-1
3 3 Faye’s Gold 10.00 8.5 16-1
1 1 Winning Streep 12.00 9 17-1
10 10 Humbled 15.00 9.3 17-1
12 12 Temple Goddess 30.00 9.6 18-1
4 4 Candy Rockette 20.00 11 21-1
15 15 Jerseys Parade 30.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Low Key in Love 6.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Cotillard 20.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Shared Vision 15.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Matt Winn S.) – Matt Winn S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Further Ado 1.00 1 2-1
2 2 Potente 3.50 3.2 6-1
6 6 Taptastic 4.50 3.2 6-1
1 1 Stop the Car 8.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Our Moneyman 15.00 5.3 10-1
5 5 Corona de Oro 12.00 5.7 11-1
8 8 Steel Imperium 30.00 7.7 14-1
3 3 Pavlovian 10.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Royal Crescent 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 Big Jake 2.50 1.3 2-1
8 8 Find No Fault 5.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Radar Lock 6.00 3.5 7-1
10 10 Leading Change 4.50 4.4 8-1
5 5 Owie 20.00 5.6 11-1
9 9 Monster Cookie 20.00 6.4 12-1
4 4 Don’s Winner 15.00 6.5 12-1
7 7 Zap d’Etat 30.00 9.5 18-1
6 6 Cantis 20.00 10 19-1
11 11 Silver Sniper 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.