Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, June 7, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Starship Godiva 2.00 1 2-1
8 8 Moon Over Choctaw 3.50 1.4 3-1
9 9 Bourbon Serengeti 4.50 1.7 3-1
1 1 Thea 6.00 2.1 4-1
7 7 Angel Bella 8.00 2.7 5-1
5 5 Spying 8.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Gypsan 12.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Balaclava 15.00 4.7 9-1
2 2 Ashes and Diamonds 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Arbiter 1.20 1 2-1
1 1 Monster 3.00 1.6 3-1
4 4 Trouble Calling 4.00 1.9 4-1
6 6 I C Light 6.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Hammond 8.00 3.2 6-1
7 7 Ganaas 12.00 4.5 8-1
2 2 Gnome 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Penalty Box 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Embry Show 3.00 1.1 2-1
2 2 Banksy’s 4.00 1.3 2-1
8 8 Preside 4.50 1.4 3-1
3 3 Time to Strike 6.00 1.7 3-1
7 7 Flaming Rainbow 20.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 Crevalli 20.00 4.3 8-1
5 5 He Has Game 20.00 4.3 8-1
10 10 Mister Landry 30.00 6.2 12-1
6 6 Sense of Freedom 50.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Cut to the Chase 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Me and Molly McGee 3.50 1.6 3-1
3 3 Paradise City 4.50 2.3 4-1
8 8 Strong State 6.00 3.2 6-1
9 9 Sing a Little Song 8.00 4.5 9-1
4 4 Rojo Rita 8.00 4.5 9-1
5 5 She’z the Law 10.00 5.8 11-1
2 2 Princess Aliyah 12.00 7.1 13-1
6 6 Irina’s Charm 15.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Sneakily 3.00 1 2-1
2 2 American Debutante (IRE) 4.00 1.4 3-1
3 3 Paseo 4.50 1.6 3-1
1 1 Vow to Resiliency 5.00 1.7 3-1
8 8 Temeraire 8.00 2.9 5-1
11 11 Emerald Spun 10.00 3.6 7-1
9 9 Starla 12.00 4.3 8-1
4 4 That Wasn’t Me 15.00 5.4 10-1
6 6 Munny Reigns 20.00 7.3 14-1
10 10 Roiling 30.00 11 21-1
5 5 Minstrelly 30.00 11 21-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Leslie’s Lady S.) – Leslie’s Lady S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Explora 1.40 1 2-1
6 6 On Time Girl 1.80 1.1 2-1
1 1 A Fine Chardonnay 4.00 1.6 3-1
4 4 Sneaky Good 6.00 2 4-1
7 7 Brooklyn Blonde 12.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Have Faith 20.00 4.9 9-1
2 2 Shilling 30.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Icona (IRE) 2.50 1 2-1
5 5 Midway Memories 4.00 1.8 3-1
11 11 Sea To Sky (IRE) 5.00 2.3 4-1
13 13 Low Key in Love 6.00 2.8 5-1
6 6 Totally Justified 8.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Faye’s Gold 10.00 4.8 9-1
1 1 Winning Streep 12.00 5.8 11-1
9 9 Madonna of Loreto 12.00 5.8 11-1
10 10 Humbled 15.00 7.4 14-1
2 2 Shared Vision 15.00 7.4 14-1
7 7 Code 15.00 7.4 14-1
14 14 Cotillard 20.00 9.9 19-1
4 4 Candy Rockette 20.00 9.9 19-1
15 15 Jerseys Parade 30.00 15 28-1
12 12 Temple Goddess 30.00 15 28-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Matt Winn S.) – Matt Winn S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Further Ado 1.00 1 2-1
2 2 Potente 3.50 1.6 3-1
6 6 Taptastic 4.50 1.8 3-1
1 1 Stop the Car 8.00 2.7 5-1
3 3 Pavlovian 10.00 3.2 6-1
5 5 Corona de Oro 12.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Our Moneyman 15.00 4.4 8-1
8 8 Steel Imperium 30.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Big Jake 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Royal Crescent 3.50 1.4 3-1
10 10 Leading Change 4.50 1.7 3-1
8 8 Find No Fault 5.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Radar Lock 6.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Don’s Winner 15.00 5.6 10-1
5 5 Owie 20.00 7.4 14-1
11 11 Silver Sniper 20.00 7.4 14-1
9 9 Monster Cookie 20.00 7.4 14-1
6 6 Cantis 20.00 7.4 14-1
7 7 Zap d’Etat 30.00 11 21-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.