Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, June 11, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Get Her Number 1.80 1 2-1
3 3 Air of Defiance 3.50 1.6 3-1
1 1 Gee No Hollander 4.50 2 4-1
4 4 Prayforpeace 6.00 2.6 5-1
2 2 Highly Flammable 8.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Global Sensation 15.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Al Amjaad 1.50 1 2-1
4 4 Gentleman Jim 3.50 2.1 4-1
1 1 Can’t Stop Willis 4.50 2.7 5-1
5 5 Mor Cheese Please 5.00 3 6-1
2 2 Standard Deduction 6.00 3.6 7-1
7 7 Surfin’ M 10.00 5.9 11-1
6 6 Disappear 12.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Argan 1.60 1 2-1
3 3 My Bossy Lady 3.50 1.9 3-1
1 1 Sunset Harbour 4.50 2.3 4-1
6 6 First Hill 5.00 2.5 5-1
7 7 Protomagic 6.00 3 6-1
4 4 Street Painter 12.00 5.7 11-1
5 5 Black Ginger 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Lady Lux 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 I Know Nothing 4.00 1.5 3-1
3 3 By Grace 5.00 2.1 4-1
2 2 Lucky Lollipop 6.00 2.6 5-1
10 10 Clever One 8.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Honky Tonk Girl 8.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Althesia 10.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 It’sthetwentythird 12.00 5.8 11-1
9 9 First Glance 15.00 7.4 14-1
5 5 Saint Dymphna 20.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Gypsy Art 2.50 1 2-1
9 9 Military Cruiser 3.50 1.3 2-1
7 7 Rose Ruler 4.00 1.4 3-1
8 8 Double Talker 4.50 1.6 3-1
1 1 Cinister Cix 5.00 1.7 3-1
4 4 Absolutely Hot 10.00 3.2 6-1
2 2 Wearebackyoungman 20.00 6.1 12-1
3 3 Frontier Justice 20.00 6.1 12-1
5 5 Red Lad 30.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Abrigado 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 Barker 3.50 1.5 3-1
2 2 Great Moment 4.50 1.9 4-1
9 9 Night Watcher 6.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Island Town 6.00 2.6 5-1
3 3 City of Life 8.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Ghost Protocol 12.00 5.3 10-1
6 6 Grande Sorpreso 15.00 6.7 13-1
7 7 Wolfcamp 20.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Five a Side 1.40 1 2-1
3 3 Cat’s Cave 3.00 1.7 3-1
6 6 Cervaro Della Sala (GB) 4.50 2.4 4-1
2 2 Lovin’ On the Run 6.00 3 6-1
7 7 Three Coats 8.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 White Rocks 8.00 3.9 7-1
5 5 Flash Wear 15.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Ez Connect 3.00 1 2-1
4 4 Eat Hay Run 4.00 1.6 3-1
15 15 Redhawk Riddler 4.00 1.6 3-1
3 3 Hedge Book 6.00 2.7 5-1
14 14 Lady Sybil 6.00 2.7 5-1
8 8 Not That Simple 8.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Fregata 8.00 3.8 7-1
10 10 Toast the Star 10.00 4.9 9-1
13 13 Beau Cup 12.00 6 11-1
7 7 Electa 12.00 6 11-1
5 5 Maiora 12.00 6 11-1
6 6 Anesty 15.00 7.7 14-1
9 9 Cape Sounion (IRE) 15.00 7.7 14-1
12 12 Bullet Journal 20.00 10.4 20-1
11 11 Headspin 20.00 10.4 20-1
16 16 Blackwing 30.00 16 30-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.