Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, June 13, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Miracle Mark 1.20 1 2-1
5 5 Sound Cause 6.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 Midway Munny 8.00 3.1 6-1
1 1 Mirage 2.00 3.3 6-1
4 4 Just Like Max 30.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Weaponized 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Mizzou 2.50 1 2-1
1 1 Stone County 4.50 1.8 3-1
3 3 Scuffle 3.00 1.9 4-1
8 8 Highway Patrol 4.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Tims 8.00 5 9-1
7 7 Problem Solved 8.00 5.1 10-1
2 2 Activity 15.00 7 13-1
4 4 Cricket Neck 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Belleza Latina 4.50 1 2-1
8 8 Valentine Eve 8.00 2.3 4-1
9 9 Juneau 10.00 4.5 9-1
1 1 Countthetrue 3.50 4.5 9-1
2 2 Doctor Approved 15.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 For the Win 2.50 5.8 11-1
5 5 Joking Around 12.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 La Misteriosa 30.00 6.9 13-1
6 6 Mels Daisy 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Don’t Say It 1.20 1 2-1
5 5 Talkin in Cursive 4.50 3.1 6-1
3 3 Ce La Vi Charli 15.00 3.3 6-1
7 7 Patty Cakes 5.00 3.6 7-1
6 6 Insightful Miss 8.00 3.7 7-1
1 1 Miranda’s Rocky 12.00 5 9-1
4 4 Sassy and Bold 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Render Judgment 1.40 1 2-1
5 5 Pagode 1.80 1.3 2-1
4 4 House United 10.00 2.6 5-1
1 1 Chillax 15.00 4 8-1
7 7 Fear of Union 8.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Consolidated 12.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Different Gravy 5.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Smoke 8.00 1 2-1
5 5 Smidgeon 4.50 2.5 5-1
1 1 Princess Chanty 30.00 2.9 5-1
8 8 House Boat Party 4.00 6.6 12-1
7 7 Epic Fashionista 2.50 7.2 14-1
3 3 Energy Flows 10.00 7.2 14-1
6 6 Peace Mission 8.00 7.7 15-1
10 10 Rumbelievable 6.00 8 15-1
4 4 Ai Magic 12.00 SCRATCH
2 2 That’s the Girl 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Austere 2.00 1 2-1
5 5 Miwa (GB) 4.50 2.3 4-1
3 3 She’s Lookin Lucky 2.50 2.3 4-1
6 6 For Love and Honor 6.00 2.3 4-1
2 2 Smiling Ellie 3.00 2.5 5-1
4 4 She’s All Charm 20.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 La Marinera 30.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Ripped 10.00 1 2-1
5 5 Can’t Hush This 8.00 2.5 5-1
10 10 Bernin Hot 12.00 3.2 6-1
6 6 Secret Chat 20.00 4 8-1
7 7 Big City 15.00 4.2 8-1
1 1 Systemic Change 6.00 5 9-1
2 2 Honky Tonk Highway 4.00 5.7 11-1
3 3 Lunar Module 4.50 6.2 12-1
8 8 Tom Cat Tuesday 20.00 9 17-1
9 9 Zambezi 1.60 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Monomoy Girl Overnight S.) – Monomoy Girl Overnight S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 La Rascasse 4.00 1 2-1
5 5 Percy’s Bar 1.40 2.4 4-1
6 6 Sneaky Good 3.00 2.5 5-1
2 2 Holly’s Holiday 8.00 5.3 10-1
1 1 Knickleandime 12.00 5.3 10-1
7 7 Point of Reference 10.00 6.7 13-1
4 4 A. P.’s Girl 6.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Chorleywood S.) – Chorleywood S.

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Echo Lane 10.00 1 2-1
1 1 Burnham Square 0.40 1.8 3-1
7 7 Chapman’s Peak 8.00 2.3 4-1
4 4 Clyde’s Got a Gun 20.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Dancin in Da’nile 12.00 3.8 7-1
3 3 Spoiler 15.00 5.2 10-1
8 8 The Hidden Chamber 30.00 6.1 12-1
9 9 Timeout 30.00 8 15-1
2 2 Parchment Party 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Redhawk Riddler 5.00 1 2-1
12 12 Epic Proud Mary 3.00 2.5 5-1
1 1 Sheer Jazz 30.00 3.3 6-1
8 8 Winning Matters 12.00 3.8 7-1
4 4 Teatonic 12.00 5.7 11-1
6 6 Aunt Sheryl 20.00 6.1 12-1
3 3 Ile de La Cite 6.00 8.1 15-1
11 11 Yo Fancy 8.00 9.4 18-1
5 5 Via Artista 4.00 9.7 18-1
2 2 I’m Game 10.00 10.3 19-1
7 7 Parisinthespring 20.00 10.9 21-1
10 10 Merry An 30.00 12 23-1
15 15 That’s a Benjamin 8.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Kaykay 2.50 SCRATCH
16 16 My Steel Magnolia 10.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Poise 15.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.