Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Wednesday, June 17, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Couldyoubeloved 4.00 1 2-1
6 6 Pulstar 3.50 1.6 3-1
1 1 Spotaway 4.50 2.4 5-1
4 4 Take Me to Londyn 3.00 2.5 5-1
3 3 Fourfiftyseven 20.00 4.3 8-1
2 2 Gift Giving 2.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Ribadeo 1.40 1 2-1
3 3 Bullet Baby 3.50 1.9 4-1
4 4 Added Touch 2.50 2.5 5-1
6 6 Golexgo 6.00 3 6-1
5 5 Moonlight Martini 15.00 3.6 7-1
2 2 Crown of Violence 15.00 7 13-1
1 1 Motown Sound 20.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Torre Eiffel 4.50 1 2-1
5 5 Lifes Reward 1.80 1 2-1
6 6 Captain Gabe 6.00 1.7 3-1
8 8 My Lucky Penny 8.00 3.9 7-1
7 7 Dixie Devil 3.50 4.1 8-1
3 3 Ecosystem 12.00 4.6 9-1
4 4 Kenwood Street 20.00 7 13-1
2 2 Wingfoot 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Divineintervention 3.00 1 2-1
9 9 Fermi 2.50 4.6 9-1
2 2 Dolce Vino 4.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Listentourmother 8.00 5.6 11-1
4 4 Warm Up the Bus 10.00 6.5 12-1
1 1 B D’s Angel 20.00 6.8 13-1
8 8 Bright Lady Day 15.00 7.5 14-1
3 3 Belongtothenavy 15.00 8 15-1
6 6 Baby Hello 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Sharp Swinger 5.00 1 2-1
4 4 Dive Bomber 6.00 3.1 6-1
8 8 Tarantino 4.50 3.5 7-1
1 1 Classic Car Wash 6.00 3.7 7-1
6 6 Kavod 3.00 4.6 9-1
7 7 Two Eagles River 4.00 4.6 9-1
2 2 Lundberg 30.00 7.1 13-1
3 3 Frosty Indulgence 10.00 8 15-1
9 9 Tuskegee Airmen 12.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Lahainaluna 4.00 1 2-1
1 1 Royal Guard 3.00 1.7 3-1
5 5 Comprehensive 2.00 1.9 4-1
10 10 War and Majesty 6.00 3.5 7-1
9 9 Astar 10.00 3.6 7-1
13 13 Ingleborough 4.00 5 9-1
2 2 Maximus Prime 20.00 5.9 11-1
4 4 Payton’s Hammer 15.00 6.3 12-1
11 11 Power of Will 20.00 6.5 12-1
7 7 T V Channel 12.00 6.8 13-1
6 6 Mr Bobo 20.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Still Sober 30.00 SCRATCH
8 8 King of Heat 30.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Transatlantic 2.50 1 2-1
6 6 Our Shenanigan 6.00 1.5 3-1
2 2 Spun Candy 3.00 1.9 4-1
7 7 Split Success 15.00 2.6 5-1
8 8 Miss Elle 5.00 2.9 5-1
9 9 Madeline’s Promise 20.00 3.1 6-1
5 5 Wisconsin Gal 15.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Dancewhenyoucan 15.00 7.2 14-1
4 4 Late to the Game 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Bourbon Bash 8.00 1 2-1
2 2 Verifire 4.00 1.2 2-1
10 10 Champlin 3.50 1.8 3-1
9 9 Furio 12.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 Track Mate 6.00 3 6-1
4 4 Tough Catch 10.00 3.2 6-1
3 3 Pinfire 12.00 3.5 7-1
8 8 Macho Music 15.00 3.9 7-1
11 11 Touch of Destiny (URU) 20.00 8.5 16-1
1 1 Track Phantom 20.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Thoughtthatcounts 4.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 9 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Antares 6.00 1 2-1
1 1 Gilded Craken 6.00 1 2-1
10 10 California Burrito 6.00 1 2-1
5 5 Tapit Shoes 6.00 1.1 2-1
4 4 Westside Tide 8.00 1.2 2-1
9 9 Beef Winslow 8.00 1.3 2-1
3 3 Andthewinneris 3.50 1.5 3-1
7 7 Seminole Chief 4.00 1.9 4-1
2 2 In a Jam 20.00 2.2 4-1
6 6 Big to Do 20.00 10 19-1
8 8 Skyro 10.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Sambalover 20.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.