Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Thursday, June 18, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Wartime 15.00 1 2-1
7 7 Randie’s Rascal (GB) 4.50 2.5 5-1
2 2 Smoke Trail 20.00 5.1 10-1
8 8 August 3.50 7.6 14-1
4 4 Ez Pal 2.50 7.6 14-1
3 3 Generational 6.00 8.1 15-1
6 6 Get Your Steps In 10.00 8.4 16-1
10 10 Epic Roll 12.00 8.8 17-1
1 1 Baytown Da Vinci 30.00 9.7 18-1
5 5 Good to Be King 8.00 10.8 20-1
16 16 Pride Rock 4.50 SCRATCH
9 9 P V Panther Pride 15.00 SCRATCH
13 13 Locus 10.00 SCRATCH
15 15 Baytown Theo 6.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Go Victory 20.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Tic Tic Tic 4.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Derby Date 3.00 1 2-1
6 6 Global Sensation 2.00 2.6 5-1
7 7 Fifty Cent Dollars 3.50 5 9-1
2 2 Be Here 15.00 5.6 11-1
5 5 Furious Anger 6.00 6.4 12-1
4 4 Illini 8.00 6.7 13-1
1 1 Catamount 5.00 7 13-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Gewurztraminer 1.40 1 2-1
4 4 My Noble Knight 4.50 1.7 3-1
9 9 Military Road 3.00 2.2 4-1
2 2 C F V Bullet 20.00 2.5 5-1
5 5 Fountain Run 6.00 3.4 7-1
7 7 Mowins 30.00 6 11-1
8 8 Underdressed 10.00 SCRATCH
3 3 Runwithheart 30.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Prince Day 10.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Susan’s Boy 1.20 1 2-1
2 2 Kuch 3.50 1.2 2-1
4 4 Hellacious 6.00 1.3 2-1
7 7 Soho Jimmy 30.00 4.7 9-1
8 8 Stoic Sage 8.00 4.8 9-1
3 3 Hamlet 15.00 4.9 9-1
1 1 Lasting Quality 4.50 5.2 10-1
6 6 Nyttime Story 20.00 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Otto the Conqueror 6.00 1 2-1
7 7 Step Forward 1.50 3.4 6-1
10 10 B D Valeski 10.00 4.2 8-1
4 4 Normandy Coast 6.00 5 9-1
9 9 Mister Mmmmm 8.00 7.3 14-1
8 8 Chiseler 12.00 7.6 14-1
6 6 Scat Free 20.00 8.3 16-1
1 1 Coming in Hot 30.00 11.2 21-1
13 13 Swill 10.00 SCRATCH
15 15 The Minkster 15.00 SCRATCH
14 14 Launch Control 8.00 SCRATCH
12 12 Three Zero 6.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Invulnerable 15.00 SCRATCH
5 5 Exploration 4.50 SCRATCH
11 11 Dark Vintage (IRE) 3.50 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Bourbon Rage 3.50 1 2-1
9 9 Fitzgerald 8.00 2.1 4-1
8 8 Both Sides of Bad 2.00 2.3 4-1
7 7 Big Rog 6.00 2.4 5-1
1 1 Good Sal 20.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Whatever 4.50 6.1 12-1
2 2 Paired 10.00 6.6 12-1
5 5 Big Fuzz 30.00 7.7 15-1
10 10 The Reinbow Factor 12.00 9.1 17-1
6 6 Old Trace 30.00 10 19-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Palacios 2.50 1 2-1
8 8 Speedstorm 12.00 3.7 7-1
4 4 Social Hour 8.00 4.1 8-1
3 3 Attersee 4.50 4.3 8-1
7 7 Easy Dial 30.00 5.2 10-1
5 5 Bourbon’s Fault 20.00 5.2 10-1
10 10 Bebedouro 10.00 7 13-1
9 9 Big Gain 3.50 SCRATCH
1 1 Baytown Bruiser 12.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Sharons Beach 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Telescopic 8.00 1 2-1
8 8 My Boy Tony 4.00 1.4 3-1
5 5 Supercharger 1.60 1.6 3-1
7 7 Rothschild 6.00 1.9 4-1
3 3 Rapoport 10.00 3.1 6-1
6 6 King of Ashes 20.00 3.9 7-1
4 4 Mary’s Boy Bolt 12.00 6.8 13-1
10 10 Blast Furnace 6.00 6.8 13-1
9 9 Taunting 20.00 9.6 18-1
2 2 Demetrius 30.00 10 19-1
12 12 Lazlo 10.00 SCRATCH
11 11 Discreet Dancer 8.00 SCRATCH

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.