Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.
Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.
Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.
Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.
RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | 4 | Ez Pal | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | August | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Tic Tic Tic | 4.00 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 16 | 16 | Pride Rock | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Randie’s Rascal (GB) | 4.50 | 2.1 | 4-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Generational | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 15 | 15 | Baytown Theo | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Good to Be King | 8.00 | 4 | 8-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Locus | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Get Your Steps In | 10.00 | 5.1 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Epic Roll | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Wartime | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 9 | 9 | P V Panther Pride | 15.00 | 7.8 | 15-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Smoke Trail | 20.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Go Victory | 20.00 | 10.6 | 20-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Baytown Da Vinci | 30.00 | 16 | 30-1 |
RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Global Sensation | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Derby Date | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Fifty Cent Dollars | 3.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Catamount | 5.00 | 2.4 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Furious Anger | 6.00 | 2.9 | 5-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Illini | 8.00 | 3.8 | 7-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Be Here | 15.00 | 7 | 13-1 |
RACE NUMBER 3 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Gewurztraminer | 1.40 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Military Road | 3.00 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | My Noble Knight | 4.50 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Fountain Run | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Underdressed | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Prince Day | 10.00 | 3.4 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | C F V Bullet | 20.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Mowins | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Runwithheart | 30.00 | 9 | 17-1 |
RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Susan’s Boy | 1.20 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Kuch | 3.50 | 1.6 | 3-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Lasting Quality | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Hellacious | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Stoic Sage | 8.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Hamlet | 15.00 | 4.4 | 8-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Nyttime Story | 20.00 | 5.6 | 11-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Soho Jimmy | 30.00 | 8 | 15-1 |
RACE NUMBER 5 (Claiming) – Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 7 | Step Forward | 1.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Dark Vintage (IRE) | 3.50 | 2 | 4-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Exploration | 4.50 | 2.5 | 5-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Three Zero | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Otto the Conqueror | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Normandy Coast | 6.00 | 3.2 | 6-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Mister Mmmmm | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 14 | 14 | Launch Control | 8.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 13 | 13 | Swill | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 10 | 10 | B D Valeski | 10.00 | 5.2 | 10-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Chiseler | 12.00 | 6.2 | 12-1 |
| 15 | 15 | The Minkster | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Invulnerable | 15.00 | 7.6 | 14-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Scat Free | 20.00 | 10.1 | 19-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Coming in Hot | 30.00 | 15 | 28-1 |
RACE NUMBER 6 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | 8 | Both Sides of Bad | 2.00 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Bourbon Rage | 3.50 | 1.5 | 3-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Whatever | 4.50 | 1.8 | 3-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Big Rog | 6.00 | 2.3 | 4-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Fitzgerald | 8.00 | 2.9 | 6-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Paired | 10.00 | 3.6 | 7-1 |
| 10 | 10 | The Reinbow Factor | 12.00 | 4.2 | 8-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Good Sal | 20.00 | 6.8 | 13-1 |
| 6 | 6 | Old Trace | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Big Fuzz | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 7 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | 6 | Palacios | 2.50 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Big Gain | 3.50 | 1.3 | 3-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Attersee | 4.50 | 1.7 | 3-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Sharons Beach | 6.00 | 2.2 | 4-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Social Hour | 8.00 | 2.8 | 5-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Bebedouro | 10.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Baytown Bruiser | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 8 | 8 | Speedstorm | 12.00 | 4.1 | 8-1 |
| 5 | 5 | Bourbon’s Fault | 20.00 | 6.7 | 13-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Easy Dial | 30.00 | 10 | 19-1 |
RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance) – Allowance
Expected Order of Finish
| Prgm | Post | Name | ML | Expected | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 5 | Supercharger | 1.60 | 1 | 2-1 |
| 8 | 8 | My Boy Tony | 4.00 | 1.9 | 4-1 |
| 7 | 7 | Rothschild | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 10 | 10 | Blast Furnace | 6.00 | 2.7 | 5-1 |
| 1 | 1 | Telescopic | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 11 | 11 | Discreet Dancer | 8.00 | 3.5 | 7-1 |
| 3 | 3 | Rapoport | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 12 | 12 | Lazlo | 10.00 | 4.3 | 8-1 |
| 4 | 4 | Mary’s Boy Bolt | 12.00 | 5 | 10-1 |
| 6 | 6 | King of Ashes | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 9 | 9 | Taunting | 20.00 | 8.1 | 15-1 |
| 2 | 2 | Demetrius | 30.00 | 12 | 23-1 |
Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.