Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Friday, June 19, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Bow Draw 6.00 1 2-1
5 5 Cozy Curlin Kitten 1.60 2.3 4-1
1 1 Story Hour 15.00 2.8 5-1
2 2 Musical Prayer 3.00 3.5 7-1
4 4 Baytown Butterfly 3.50 4.8 9-1
6 6 Barbratina 4.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 National Eclipse 2.50 1 2-1
2 2 Saltwater Cowboy 3.00 2.9 5-1
5 5 Hoodlum 1.60 3.8 7-1
4 4 Ready to Pounce 8.00 3.8 7-1
1 1 Nip N Tuck 4.00 3.9 7-1
6 6 Creek 20.00 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
9 9 Bee Crazy 3.00 1 2-1
1 1 Gone and Plenty 4.50 3.1 6-1
3 3 Bit Tipsy 15.00 3.8 7-1
6 6 Let Her Fly 6.00 4.7 9-1
7 7 Heart of a Gunner 3.50 SCRATCH
4 4 Fashion Setter 10.00 6.8 13-1
5 5 Crack On 30.00 6.8 13-1
10 10 Just You and Me 12.00 7.2 14-1
8 8 Fuego Sunset 20.00 7.2 14-1
11 11 Press Release 4.00 SCRATCH
2 2 Spun Tight 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 4 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Vanderbilt 1.20 1 2-1
1 1 Landing Craft 8.00 4.1 8-1
6 6 Evan On Earth 3.50 4.5 9-1
7 7 Army Wildcatter 12.00 6 11-1
2 2 Nash Potatoes 10.00 6.5 12-1
5 5 Spurgeon 20.00 7.2 14-1
3 3 Royal Sapphire 12.00 7.8 15-1
8 8 Justifreak 4.50 8 15-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
11 11 Crossfire 4.00 1 2-1
5 5 Trim Castle 3.00 1.8 3-1
9 9 Bourbon Town 6.00 2.2 4-1
3 3 See You Soon 5.00 4.2 8-1
2 2 Ditlihi 15.00 5 9-1
4 4 Karajan 8.00 5.1 10-1
7 7 King Crusher 12.00 6.7 13-1
8 8 Cold Kiss 10.00 SCRATCH
6 6 Baytown Theo 10.00 SCRATCH
10 10 Bomani 20.00 SCRATCH
1 1 Prairie Avenue 20.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 6 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 West Hollywood 2.00 1 2-1
4 4 Irish Aces 3.50 3 6-1
1 1 Lambeth 4.50 4.8 9-1
6 6 Idratherbeblessed 10.00 5.4 10-1
9 9 Theismann 15.00 5.9 11-1
7 7 Herchee 8.00 6.2 12-1
2 2 Higgins Boat 20.00 6.3 12-1
3 3 Awesome Aaron 15.00 7.5 14-1
5 5 Funtastic Again 5.00 9 17-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
8 8 Mitty’s Griddy 3.50 1 2-1
2 2 League of Legends 8.00 2.8 5-1
1 1 Mamoot 15.00 3.4 6-1
6 6 Forty Love 5.00 3.4 6-1
3 3 Stormy At Midnight 10.00 3.4 6-1
9 9 Livehappy 20.00 4.8 9-1
4 4 Guardian 3.00 SCRATCH
7 7 Coastal Breeze 4.50 SCRATCH
5 5 Mischief Mania 6.00 SCRATCH

RACE NUMBER 8 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Cash Call 1.60 1 2-1
3 3 Silent Law 4.00 3.6 7-1
1 1 City Scene 20.00 3.8 7-1
5 5 Anakarina 2.50 4.3 8-1
2 2 Tapit Quick 8.00 4.4 8-1
4 4 Roswell 3.50 6 11-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
6 6 Competitive Market 1.80 1 2-1
9 9 Amberglen (IRE) 2.50 1.6 3-1
4 4 Sunshine Daydream 12.00 3.5 7-1
7 7 La Cantera (IRE) 6.00 4 8-1
8 8 Miss Pharaoh 4.00 5.1 10-1
5 5 Ensorcell 20.00 7.1 13-1
2 2 Jerseys Parade 30.00 7.4 14-1
1 1 Pookie 10.00 7.8 15-1
3 3 Smokin Hot Blonde 30.00 9 17-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.