Churchill Downs Horse Racing Picks for Sunday, June 21, 2026

Below is a table for each race of the day. The table is ordered by our algorythmically calculated expected order of finish. Our program takes into account past performances, workout times, speed ratings, recency, and breeder/jockey data amoung other data points.

Using the “Expected” column, the lower number is better. When there is a clear lowest value, we like that horse best to win. In situations where many horses share low numbers, we like those horses equally well. If no horse is under 3, the results are less clear to us and bettors should examine the race more closely.

Using the “Value” column, we present the minimum payout we would recommend betting the particular horse. Look for higher-paying odds than those listed if you like that horse.

Scratches are notated and will be updated as available.

RACE NUMBER 1 (Maiden Special Weight) – Maiden Special Weight

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Reb 0.00 1 2-1
7 7 Flick 0.00 1 2-1
6 6 The Hund 0.00 1 2-1
2 2 Grind 0.00 1 2-1
3 3 Rugged Love 0.00 1 2-1
4 4 Tilt a Twirl 0.00 1 2-1
5 5 Tegatron 0.00 1 2-1

RACE NUMBER 2 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Miacomet 0.00 1 2-1
7 7 Slim Slow Slider 0.00 1 2-1
2 2 Curlin’s Gesture 0.00 1 2-1
5 5 Slider 0.00 1 2-1
3 3 Upturned Brim 0.00 1 2-1
6 6 Raising Kane 0.00 1 2-1
1 1 Gardiner 0.00 1 2-1

RACE NUMBER 3 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Starfinder 0.00 1 2-1
10 10 Stealing the Show 0.00 1 2-1
6 6 Persuasion 0.00 1 2-1
3 3 Crowning Victoria 0.00 1 2-1
2 2 Lily’s Revenge 0.00 1 2-1
5 5 Dance Like This 0.00 1 2-1
9 9 Youhadme At Merlot 0.00 1 2-1
8 8 Lumberjill 0.00 1 2-1
4 4 Extra Benefits 0.00 1 2-1
1 1 She’s a Beauty 0.00 1 2-1

RACE NUMBER 4 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Daring Madison 0.00 1 2-1
8 8 Babysitter 0.00 1 2-1
1 1 Astronova 0.00 1 2-1
5 5 Cynical Humor 0.00 1 2-1
10 10 Little Bit Angel 0.00 1 2-1
3 3 Blackwing 0.00 1 2-1
11 11 Lightning Run 0.00 1 2-1
2 2 Long Live 0.00 1 2-1
6 6 Maverick Queen 0.00 1 2-1
9 9 Modern Escape 0.00 1 2-1
7 7 Devices (IRE) 0.00 1 2-1

RACE NUMBER 5 (Starter Allowance) – Starter Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
10 10 Tessuto 0.00 1 2-1
8 8 Laughnowcrylater 0.00 1 2-1
1 1 Wish Carefully 0.00 1 2-1
4 4 Izzy d’Oro 0.00 1 2-1
7 7 Il Cavallino 0.00 1 2-1
2 2 Uncle Evco 0.00 1 2-1
3 3 Bourbon Flight 0.00 1 2-1
9 9 Truly Legit 0.00 1 2-1
5 5 Petoskey Stones 0.00 1 2-1
6 6 Tisum 0.00 1 2-1

RACE NUMBER 6 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
4 4 Nabokov 0.00 1 2-1
8 8 Osbourne 0.00 1 2-1
3 3 Machine Gun Man 0.00 1 2-1
9 9 Shouldaboughtdabar 0.00 1 2-1
10 10 Invulnerable 0.00 1 2-1
5 5 Mister Banderas 0.00 1 2-1
7 7 Classic Time 0.00 1 2-1
1 1 Shadow Coast 0.00 1 2-1
2 2 Shan 0.00 1 2-1
6 6 Curahee 0.00 1 2-1

RACE NUMBER 7 (Claiming) – Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
3 3 Heart Spin 0.00 1 2-1
1 1 Raconteuse 0.00 1 2-1
2 2 Derry Girl 0.00 1 2-1
10 10 Plot 0.00 1 2-1
6 6 Neenah 0.00 1 2-1
5 5 Cool American 0.00 1 2-1
11 11 Tearin’up My Heart 0.00 1 2-1
4 4 Got Gone 0.00 1 2-1
9 9 Back Ring Buzz 0.00 1 2-1
7 7 Red Beretta 0.00 1 2-1
8 8 Toodelirious (IRE) 0.00 1 2-1

RACE NUMBER 8 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
2 2 Castle Run 0.00 1 2-1
5 5 D Bigalow 0.00 1 2-1
4 4 Sinatra 0.00 1 2-1
3 3 Krewezin 0.00 1 2-1
9 9 Maximum Honor 0.00 1 2-1
11 11 Blackjack Man 0.00 1 2-1
1 1 Tapcon 0.00 1 2-1
6 6 Itchy 0.00 1 2-1
8 8 Lasting Legacy 0.00 1 2-1
7 7 Jem’s Hershey Kiss 0.00 1 2-1
10 10 Captain Mercury 0.00 1 2-1

RACE NUMBER 9 (Allowance) – Allowance

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
5 5 Timing Difference 0.00 1 2-1
6 6 Gamblers Tail 0.00 1 2-1
8 8 Bold Strength 0.00 1 2-1
7 7 Jimmy’s Dailys 0.00 1 2-1
1 1 Only Phil 0.00 1 2-1
4 4 Show of Force 0.00 1 2-1
3 3 Sheriff Bart 0.00 1 2-1
2 2 Envision 0.00 1 2-1

RACE NUMBER 10 (Allowance Optional Claiming) – Allowance Optional Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
1 1 Dream On Stormy 0.00 1 2-1
4 4 Sanctify 0.00 1 2-1
8 8 High Fashion Kate 0.00 1 2-1
5 5 Caberneigh 0.00 1 2-1
3 3 Best Cupcake 0.00 1 2-1
9 9 Cloe 0.00 1 2-1
7 7 Sadie Earp 0.00 1 2-1
2 2 Gigabit 0.00 1 2-1
6 6 Dangherecomesshang (IRE) 0.00 1 2-1

RACE NUMBER 11 (Maiden Claiming) – Maiden Claiming

Expected Order of Finish

Prgm Post Name ML Expected Value
7 7 Barker 0.00 1 2-1
6 6 Accord 0.00 1 2-1
4 4 Authentic Patriot 0.00 1 2-1
10 10 Sequoia Stars 0.00 1 2-1
3 3 Blue Mountains 0.00 1 2-1
2 2 Meanstepper 0.00 1 2-1
1 1 Feral 0.00 1 2-1
5 5 Max Is Him 0.00 1 2-1
8 8 Bedeviled 0.00 1 2-1
9 9 Silver Sniper 0.00 1 2-1
11 11 Culper Code 0.00 1 2-1

Picks are based on historical performance and match-up. Keep up to date on late scratches and other changes – those are not taken into consideration. Sports from the Basement provides no warranty on these suggestions and readers should make picks at their own risk.